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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 4.2 wins, so it did -2.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-2.0 pts
Called / graded
4/9
Expected from price
4.2
Flagged volume
$149.8k
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$38k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? at 44¢) and the edge is -9.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 7% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 31% · n=2
40–60¢
67% vs 49% · n=3
60–80¢
67% vs 68% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$19.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.20M volume · 3,255 trades · since Apr 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$19.2k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
57%
40 closed
Wallet age · markets
194d
39 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 4 | 2 | 1.9 | +2.0 pts |
| Sports | 5 | 2 | 2.3 | -5.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 43¢ | $22.7k | missed |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 23¢ | $11.5k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $12.5k | called |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 39¢ | $11.6k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $24.8k | called |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $26.9k 2.1× usual |
missed |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 56¢ | $12.2k | called |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 7.1¢ | $10.5k | missed |
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 24¢ | $17.1k | called |
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