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HH168

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 8 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 7.3 wins, so it did +9.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +8.2 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?+$278.8kYes · avg 44¢ → 94.5¢ · $520.1k · 1 proven with, 0 against
Price-adjusted edge
+9.2 pts
Called / graded
8/8
Expected from price
7.3
Flagged volume
$1.55M
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.2 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$38k
8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 8 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
$0$38k
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep at 84¢) and the edge is +8.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
100% vs 91% · n=8
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$446.1k
Last 30 days +$38.2k · $12.19M volume · 9,956 trades · since Nov 20, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$325.7k
Open P&L · 4 positions
+$238.3k
Closed-position win rate
58%
114 closed
Wallet age · markets
703d
104 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Economy887.3+9.2 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 90¢ $113.3k
2.9× usual
90% 38d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 84¢ $10.2k84% 39d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢ $25.7k92% 101d agocalled
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 91¢ $30.9k91% 113d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 91.1¢ $38.3k91% 113d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 90.4¢ $39.8k90% 113d agocalled
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $12.0k99% 161d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 97¢ $48.5k97% 169d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $29.4k98% 169d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 96¢ $124.8k
3.2× usual
96% 169d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $15.6k99% 201d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.3¢ $45.6k98% 203d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 97.8¢ $176.1k
4.5× usual
98% 204d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $135.4k
3.5× usual
1% 254d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW SELL No @ 99¢ $19.8k1% 258d agoexcluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $60.7k92% 261d agocalled
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ $300.1k
7.7× usual
98% 264d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 96.1¢ $33.4k96% 285d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED BUY Yes @ 95.9¢ $167.8k
4.3× usual
96% 285d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 77¢ $77.0k23% 314d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?MED SELL Yes @ 80¢ $38.0k20% 316d agomissed
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 79¢ $10.6k21% 317d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 90¢$113.3k
MED HH168 · 38d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 84¢$10.2k
LOW HH168 · 39d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 92¢$25.7k
LOW HH168 · 101d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 91¢$30.9k
LOW HH168 · 113d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 91.1¢$38.3k
LOW HH168 · 113d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 90.4¢$39.8k
LOW HH168 · 113d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$12.0k
LOW HH168 · 161d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 97¢$48.5k
LOW HH168 · 169d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98¢$29.4k
LOW HH168 · 169d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 96¢$124.8k
MED HH168 · 169d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.7¢$15.6k
LOW HH168 · 201d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 98.3¢$45.6k
LOW HH168 · 203d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 97.8¢$176.1k
LOW HH168 · 204d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99.2¢$135.4k
LOW HH168 · 254d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL No @ 99¢$19.8k
LOW HH168 · 258d ago
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?called
BUY No @ 92¢$60.7k
LOW HH168 · 261d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY No @ 98.4¢$300.1k
LOW HH168 · 264d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 96.1¢$33.4k
MED HH168 · 285d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 95.9¢$167.8k
MED HH168 · 285d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 77¢$77.0k
MED HH168 · 314d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 80¢$38.0k
MED HH168 · 316d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 79¢$10.6k
LOW HH168 · 317d ago

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