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hawkj

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +6.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?+$3,152Yes · avg 86¢ → 96.4¢ · $29.1kUS recession by end of 2026?+$434No · avg 88¢ → 91.5¢ · $11.3kClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?+$4No · avg 92.9¢ → 96.7¢ · $101
Price-adjusted edge
+6.5 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$314.5k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±26.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$80.7k
Last 30 days +$501 · $3.27M volume · 5,088 trades · since Oct 16, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
−$84.5k
Open P&L · 3 positions
+$3,590
Closed-position win rate
67%
212 closed
Wallet age · markets
373d
204 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Economy210.9+6.5 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $31.4k0% 122d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ $26.2k76% 122d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $20.0k0% 161d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $35.5k1% 178d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $17.0k1% 181d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 95¢ $20.0k95% 182d agocalled
Will Trump visit China by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $10.0k0% 182d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $16.7k0% 182d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.6¢ $23.3k0% 202d agoexcluded
Will Trump visit China by May 31?LOW SELL Yes @ 76¢ $10.6k24% 205d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $12.4k0% 206d agoexcluded
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $16.3k0% 215d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.2¢ $55.2k
2.8× usual
1% 272d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 89¢ $19.8k11% 292d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$31.4k
LOW hawkj · 122d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called
BUY Yes @ 76¢$26.2k
LOW hawkj · 122d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$20.0k
LOW hawkj · 161d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.2¢$35.5k
LOW hawkj · 178d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?excluded
SELL No @ 99.3¢$17.0k
LOW hawkj · 181d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?called
BUY No @ 95¢$20.0k
LOW hawkj · 182d ago
Will Trump visit China by April 30?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$10.0k
LOW hawkj · 182d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$16.7k
LOW hawkj · 182d ago
US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.6¢$23.3k
LOW hawkj · 202d ago
Will Trump visit China by May 31?excluded
SELL Yes @ 76¢$10.6k
LOW hawkj · 205d ago
US forces enter Iran by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$12.4k
LOW hawkj · 206d ago
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$16.3k
LOW hawkj · 215d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.2¢$55.2k
LOW hawkj · 272d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 89¢$19.8k
LOW hawkj · 292d ago

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