← Wallets
−$265Over · avg 51¢ → 50¢ · $26.8k+$410Vikings · avg 49¢ → 50¢ · $20.9k−$501Steelers · avg 62¢ → 60¢ · $20.2k−$725Over · avg 54¢ → 52¢ · $18.0k−$1,400Chiefs · avg 45¢ → 42¢ · $16.6k+$1,109Raiders · avg 48¢ → 54¢ · $10.8k+$349Steelers · avg 54¢ → 56¢ · $7,884+$218Over · avg 52¢ → 54¢ · $7,774
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 13 of 29. The prices it paid implied about 16.2 wins, so it did -10.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (-10.9 pts over 29 bets). Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-10.9 pts
Called / graded
13/29
Expected from price
16.2
Flagged volume
$9.59M
Sample size29 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$512k29 graded bets in the order they resolved · 13 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Cowboys vs. Giants at 40¢) and the edge is -13.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
35% vs 52% · n=20
60–80¢
67% vs 63% · n=9
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$4.85M
Last 30 days −$1.66M · $246.04M volume · 116,754 trades · since Mar 05, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$35.43M
Open P&L · 294 positions
−$5.27M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
598d
3521 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 29 | 13 | 16.2 | -10.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 | LOW SELL Under @ 99.9¢ | $33.5k | excluded |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 49¢ | $14.7k | excluded |
 Mavericks vs. Pacers | LOW BUY Pacers @ 46¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
| Spread: Pacers (-7.5) | LOW BUY Pacers @ 49¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 240.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 51¢ | $15.1k | missed |
 Cardinals vs. Rams | LOW BUY Rams @ 38¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
 Delaware vs. Middle Tennessee | LOW BUY Middle Tennessee @ 60¢ | $14.3k | excluded |
| Bills vs. Rams | LOW BUY Bills @ 51¢ | $45.1k | excluded |
| Ravens vs. Falcons | LOW BUY Ravens @ 43¢ | $27.8k | excluded |
| Falcons vs. Saints | LOW BUY Saints @ 34¢ | $17.1k | excluded |
| Broncos vs. 49ers | LOW BUY 49ers @ 58¢ | $23.2k | excluded |
| Steelers vs. Browns | LOW BUY Steelers @ 25¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
| Eagles vs. Bears | LOW BUY Eagles @ 17¢ | $11.5k | excluded |
 Will France win on 2026-09-28? | LOW BUY No @ 58¢ | $69.0k | excluded |
| Rams vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Rams @ 89¢ | $83.9k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Raiders vs. Saints | LOW BUY Saints @ 39¢ | $27.3k | excluded |
| Ravens vs. Cowboys | LOW BUY Ravens @ 35¢ | $31.1k | excluded |
| Vikings vs. Buccaneers | LOW BUY Vikings @ 51¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
 Houston Astros vs. Athletics | LOW BUY Houston Astros @ 63¢ | $23.6k | excluded |
| Seahawks vs. Cardinals | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 65¢ | $38.1k | called |
| New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | LOW BUY New York Yankees @ 59¢ | $67.1k | missed |
| Cowboys vs. Giants | LOW BUY Giants @ 39¢ | $34.7k | excluded |
| Dolphins vs. Raiders | LOW BUY Dolphins @ 40¢ | $31.1k | excluded |
| San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants | LOW BUY San Francisco Giants @ 41¢ | $25.5k | excluded |
| Cowboys vs. Giants | LOW BUY Giants @ 40¢ | $11.5k | called |
| Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners | MED BUY Texas Rangers @ 49¢ | $55.3k | excluded |
 US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Alexander Blockx | MED BUY Karen Khachanov @ 63¢ | $39.1k | excluded |
| US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen | MED SELL Frances Tiafoe @ 99.9¢ | $251.5k 6.6× usual |
excluded |
| US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen | MED BUY Frances Tiafoe @ 62¢ | $25.5k | excluded |
| US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen | MED BUY Alex Michelsen @ 53¢ | $35.2k | excluded |
| US Open ATP: Arthur Gea vs Botic van de Zandschulp | LOW BUY Arthur Gea @ 41¢ | $14.5k | excluded |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado Rockies | MED BUY Baltimore Orioles @ 61¢ | $40.7k | excluded |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado Rockies | MED BUY Colorado Rockies @ 53¢ | $64.0k | excluded |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado Rockies | LOW BUY Colorado Rockies @ 52¢ | $22.5k | excluded |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Athletics | LOW BUY Athletics @ 49¢ | $20.8k | excluded |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants | LOW BUY Arizona Diamondbacks @ 51¢ | $11.8k | missed |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves | LOW BUY Atlanta Braves @ 54¢ | $18.0k | called |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals | LOW BUY Colorado Rockies @ 26¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
| 49ers vs. Chargers | LOW BUY Chargers @ 51¢ | $20.0k | missed |
 UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | MED BUY Islam Makhachev @ 74¢ | $133.2k 3.5× usual |
excluded |
| UFC 330: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson (Women's Strawweight, Main Card) | MED SELL Mackenzie Dern @ 99.9¢ | $259.7k 6.8× usual |
excluded |
| UFC 330: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson (Women's Strawweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Mackenzie Dern @ 64¢ | $57.6k | excluded |
| UFC 330: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson (Women's Strawweight, Main Card) | MED BUY Mackenzie Dern @ 64¢ | $108.8k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
 Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | MED BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 67¢ | $81.9k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | LOW BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 43¢ | $13.1k | called |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays | LOW BUY Boston Red Sox @ 60¢ | $37.4k | missed |
| Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles | LOW BUY Baltimore Orioles @ 64¢ | $92.4k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners | MED BUY Seattle Mariners @ 57¢ | $48.0k | excluded |
| San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres | LOW BUY San Diego Padres @ 61¢ | $67.8k | excluded |
| San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres | LOW BUY San Diego Padres @ 61¢ | $54.9k | missed |
| San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres | LOW BUY San Diego Padres @ 60¢ | $69.5k | missed |
| San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres | MED BUY San Diego Padres @ 59¢ | $162.1k 4.3× usual |
missed |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics | MED BUY Boston Red Sox @ 59¢ | $108.5k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | LOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 58¢ | $25.8k | excluded |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets | LOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 54¢ | $71.4k | called |
| San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves | LOW BUY San Diego Padres @ 47¢ | $64.7k | missed |
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Spain @ 90.5¢ | $52.0k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | MED BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $160.3k 4.2× usual |
excluded |
| UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card) | MED BUY Dricus Du Plessis @ 67¢ | $147.2k 3.9× usual |
excluded |
| France vs. England: O/U 6.5 | MED BUY Under @ 60¢ | $61.6k | excluded |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox | LOW BUY Tampa Bay Rays @ 49¢ | $55.2k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $33.2k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $18.3k | called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $29.9k | called |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 47¢ | $20.9k | missed |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | MED BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 68¢ | $81.3k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 | MED BUY Over @ 40¢ | $41.7k | excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | MED BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $94.7k 2.5× usual |
missed |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 63¢ | $56.7k | excluded |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Over @ 49¢ | $43.3k | missed |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 64¢ | $10.4k | called |
| Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 | MED BUY Over @ 55¢ | $53.4k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: O/U 1.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 35¢ | $24.5k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 51¢ | $102.0k 2.7× usual |
called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 51¢ | $15.3k | called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Mexico @ 49¢ | $16.3k | called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Mexico @ 50¢ | $16.7k | missed |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 52¢ | $72.8k | called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 54¢ | $81.8k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 95¢ | $10.6k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | MED BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $74.3k | excluded |
| Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 | LOW SELL Under @ 28¢ | $21.8k | excluded |
| Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $45.1k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | MED BUY Yes @ 46¢ | $30.7k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 77¢ | $39.8k | excluded |
| Spread: France (-2.5) | LOW BUY France @ 33¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | MED BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $111.2k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $57.8k | excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $64.4k | called |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $66.6k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $12.2k | excluded |
| New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 42¢ | $28.0k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $31.4k | excluded |
| Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? | MED BUY Yes @ 46¢ | $25.4k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $31.1k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | MED BUY Yes @ 69¢ | $103.5k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $53.6k | excluded |
| England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 47¢ | $31.3k | excluded |
| Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $21.3k | excluded |
| Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? | MED BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $130.0k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | LOW SELL Yes @ 40¢ | $41.2k | excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $75.6k | called |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $136.4k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 | MED BUY Over @ 40¢ | $25.6k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $297.5k 7.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | MED BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $227.8k 6.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | MED SELL Yes @ 66¢ | $66.0k | excluded |
| Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 | LOW SELL Over @ 37¢ | $25.1k | excluded |
| Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 38¢ | $23.6k | missed |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $119.5k 3.1× usual |
called |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 39¢ | $17.3k | excluded |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | MED BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $69.9k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | MED BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $87.0k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $185.4k 4.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | MED BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $96.0k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $41.6k | missed |
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $82.1k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $24.0k | excluded |
| Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 59¢ | $22.4k | excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $73.5k | excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $18.6k | excluded |
| Spread: England (-1.5) | MED BUY Croatia @ 53¢ | $58.9k | excluded |
| Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 | LOW SELL Over @ 99.9¢ | $233.1k 6.1× usual |
excluded |
| Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Over @ 60¢ | $133.3k 3.5× usual |
excluded |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics | MED BUY Pittsburgh Pirates @ 46¢ | $44.0k | excluded |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $66.0k | excluded |
| Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 44¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $27.5k | excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $42.6k | missed |
| Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $78.8k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | MED BUY Spurs @ 47¢ | $57.4k | excluded |
| Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | MED SELL Los Angeles Angels @ 99.9¢ | $273.9k 7.2× usual |
excluded |
| Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | LOW BUY Los Angeles Angels @ 89¢ | $29.7k | excluded |
| Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | LOW BUY Los Angeles Angels @ 55¢ | $21.0k | excluded |
| UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW SELL Gabriel Bonfim @ 99.9¢ | $144.3k 3.8× usual |
excluded |
| UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card) | MED BUY Gabriel Bonfim @ 47¢ | $26.1k | excluded |
| UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Gabriel Bonfim @ 50¢ | $16.7k | excluded |
| UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Gabriel Bonfim @ 51¢ | $22.7k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 58¢ | $23.2k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 64¢ | $64.0k | excluded |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels | LOW SELL Colorado Rockies @ 99.9¢ | $158.8k 4.2× usual |
excluded |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels | MED BUY Colorado Rockies @ 46¢ | $26.9k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 56¢ | $56.0k | excluded |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds | LOW BUY Cincinnati Reds @ 47¢ | $26.1k | excluded |
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 38¢ | $26.6k | excluded |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners | LOW SELL Arizona Diamondbacks @ 48¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 58¢ | $58.0k | missed |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW SELL Spurs @ 99.9¢ | $83.1k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres | LOW BUY San Diego Padres @ 49¢ | $27.2k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | MED BUY Cavaliers @ 48¢ | $83.8k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 36¢ | $32.0k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 69¢ | $17.6k | called |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 68¢ | $46.8k | called |
| Spread: Thunder (-6.5) | LOW BUY Thunder @ 53¢ | $35.3k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 33¢ | $16.5k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW SELL Cavaliers @ 99.9¢ | $99.9k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 37¢ | $32.9k | excluded |
| New York Yankees vs. New York Mets | LOW SELL New York Mets @ 99.9¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| New York Yankees vs. New York Mets | LOW BUY New York Mets @ 53¢ | $26.5k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 62¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| Spread: Pistons (-4.5) | LOW SELL Cavaliers @ 52¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | LOW SELL Cavaliers @ 99.9¢ | $40.0k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 60¢ | $24.0k | called |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | LOW SELL Timberwolves @ 99.9¢ | $80.9k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | MED SELL Sean Strickland @ 99.6¢ | $264.2k 6.9× usual |
excluded |
| Lakers vs. Rockets | LOW SELL Rockets @ 99.9¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
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