Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$594
Return on staked
-20.5%
Bets
13/29 won
Edge vs price
-10.9 pts ±9.1
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -0.8 pts (8/14). Newer half: -20.3 pts (5/15).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
May 20, 12:43 EDTOct 21, 18:13 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 240.5 | 51¢ | missed | 2d ago |
| Seahawks vs. Cardinals | 65¢ | called | 34d ago |
| New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 59¢ | missed | 34d ago |
| Cowboys vs. Giants | 40¢ | called | 43d ago |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants | 51¢ | missed | 57d ago |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves | 54¢ | called | 58d ago |
| 49ers vs. Chargers | 51¢ | missed | 64d ago |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 43¢ | called | 71d ago |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays | 60¢ | missed | 75d ago |
| San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres | 61¢ | missed | 85d ago |
| San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres | 60¢ | missed | 85d ago |
| San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres | 59¢ | missed | 86d ago |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets | 54¢ | called | 91d ago |
| San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves | 47¢ | missed | 95d ago |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox | 49¢ | missed | 98d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.