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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 8 of 11. The prices it paid implied about 5.1 wins, so it did +26.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +22.0 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+26.2 pts
Called / graded
8/11
Expected from price
5.1
Flagged volume
$607.8k
Sample size11 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$459k11 graded bets in the order they resolved · 8 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers at 32¢) and the edge is +22.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
100% vs 35% · n=2
40–60¢
67% vs 49% · n=9
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$996.0k
Last 30 days +$208.5k · $78.76M volume · 44,971 trades · since Jun 14, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$16.55M
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
70%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
132d
724 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 11 | 8 | 5.1 | +26.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | LOW BUY Arizona Diamondbacks @ 41¢ | $28.7k | called |
| Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels | MED BUY Los Angeles Angels @ 51¢ | $62.9k | called |
| Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | MED BUY Arizona Diamondbacks @ 55¢ | $79.3k | called |
| San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants | MED BUY San Diego Padres @ 58¢ | $103.4k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Athletics | LOW BUY Athletics @ 46¢ | $16.7k | missed |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves | LOW BUY Atlanta Braves @ 52¢ | $71.9k | called |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals | LOW BUY Colorado Rockies @ 43¢ | $21.4k | missed |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | LOW BUY Arizona Diamondbacks @ 49¢ | $34.0k | excluded |
 Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays | LOW BUY Toronto Blue Jays @ 38¢ | $20.7k | called |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | MED BUY Seattle Mariners @ 32¢ | $60.0k | called |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets | MED BUY New York Mets @ 45¢ | $39.0k | missed |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox | MED BUY Boston Red Sox @ 51¢ | $69.9k | called |
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