← Wallets
−$151Over · avg 50¢ → 50¢ · $144.3k+$426SV 07 Elversberg · avg 54¢ → 55¢ · $66.1k−$114Over · avg 56¢ → 56¢ · $31.7k−$186No · avg 95.7¢ → 95¢ · $25.7k+$107Yes · avg 60¢ → 60¢ · $13.0k+$3,173Yes · avg 64¢ → 95.7¢ · $9,499−$206Yes · avg 51¢ → 50¢ · $8,387 · 1 proven with, 0 against+$225Yes · avg 67¢ → 70¢ · $6,685
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 36 of 55. The prices it paid implied about 33.5 wins, so it did +4.5 pts better than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (+4.5 pts over 55 bets). Without its single best bet: +3.1 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
None of its 2 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.
Price-adjusted edge
+4.5 pts
Called / graded
36/55
Expected from price
33.5
Flagged volume
$2.40M
Sample size55 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±6.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$95k55 graded bets in the order they resolved · 36 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 at 24¢) and the edge is +3.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
50% vs 30% · n=4
40–60¢
56% vs 51% · n=25
60–80¢
84% vs 71% · n=19
80–100¢
57% vs 85% · n=7
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.32M
Last 30 days −$36.8k · $80.72M volume · 76,554 trades · since Mar 28, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$9.83M
Open P&L · 347 positions
−$983.3k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
210d
8210 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 55 | 36 | 33.5 | +4.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5) | MED BUY SV 07 Elversberg @ 54¢ | $42.3k 2.2× usual |
pending |
 Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 | MED BUY Over @ 49¢ | $96.1k 4.9× usual |
pending |
 LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | LOW BUY Dplus KIA @ 61¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
 Utah vs. Kraken | MED BUY Utah @ 64¢ | $90.7k 4.6× usual |
excluded |
| Hurricanes vs. Oilers | MED BUY Hurricanes @ 56¢ | $44.6k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
 Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $23.1k | excluded |
| Panthers vs. Senators | MED BUY Panthers @ 50¢ | $56.0k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
 Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) | MED BUY Real Madrid CF @ 43¢ | $38.7k | called |
| Como 1907 vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5 | MED BUY Over @ 42¢ | $36.0k | called |
| Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5) | LOW BUY Real Betis Balompié @ 38¢ | $19.8k | missed |
 Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 221.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 49¢ | $21.0k | excluded |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 71¢ | $23.0k | called |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
 Will Italy win on 2026-10-05? | LOW BUY Yes @ 70¢ | $14.5k | called |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-20? | MED BUY Yes @ 44¢ | $60.1k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $13.9k | called |
 San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants | LOW BUY San Francisco Giants @ 41¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | LOW BUY Invictus Gaming @ 52¢ | $12.9k | missed |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $13.2k | excluded |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $15.8k | called |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-08-28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $10.5k | called |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ | $10.0k | called |
| LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group | MED BUY KT Rolster @ 24¢ | $21.8k | called |
 Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Argentina? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $50.9k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| France vs. England: Team to Win | MED BUY France @ 70¢ | $28.0k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $59.8k 3.0× usual |
missed |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $62.1k 3.2× usual |
missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 59¢ | $67.6k 3.4× usual |
called |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | LOW BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 66¢ | $10.2k | missed |
| England vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 | MED BUY Over @ 22¢ | $13.4k | missed |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 76¢ | $10.5k | called |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 75¢ | $30.0k | called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | MED BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $47.3k 2.4× usual |
missed |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 75¢ | $45.0k 2.3× usual |
called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $18.3k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | MED BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $61.6k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Over @ 47¢ | $41.1k 2.1× usual |
missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | MED BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $105.9k 5.4× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | MED BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $40.5k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | MED BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $36.9k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | MED BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $29.8k | called |
| Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 68¢ | $22.5k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 | MED BUY Over @ 75¢ | $34.3k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 86¢ | $10.3k | called |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | MED BUY United States @ 53¢ | $58.5k 3.0× usual |
missed |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 86¢ | $16.7k | called |
| Mexico vs. England: O/U 1.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 68¢ | $16.5k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 51¢ | $10.1k | called |
| Mexico vs. England: Both Teams to Score | LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $10.0k | called |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | MED BUY United States @ 50¢ | $33.5k | missed |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 86¢ | $18.3k | called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW BUY Yes @ 72¢ | $10.1k | called |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY United States @ 50¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| Canada vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score | LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $17.5k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 93¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| Portugal vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $14.8k | called |
| Switzerland vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score | LOW BUY No @ 50¢ | $14.3k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | MED BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $64.4k 3.3× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | MED BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $49.5k 2.5× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢ | $10.2k | called |
| Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $10.0k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢ | $10.1k | called |
| South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Canada @ 75¢ | $11.1k | called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 72¢ | $10.1k | missed |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | MED BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $22.1k | excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $10.1k | called |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $21.7k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | LOW SELL Yes @ 53¢ | $17.6k | called |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $35.2k | missed |
| England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 84¢ | $10.3k | missed |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 71¢ | $29.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) | MED BUY Sweden @ 69¢ | $35.1k | missed |
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $19.5k | called |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $19.8k | missed |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $23.1k | missed |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 58¢ | $29.0k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | MED BUY Timberwolves @ 36¢ | $23.4k | called |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 87¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
 Wild vs. Stars | LOW BUY Wild @ 47¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $17.5k | missed |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 83¢ | $41.5k 2.1× usual |
missed |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Pistons @ 53¢ | $16.7k | called |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Pistons @ 54¢ | $10.9k | called |
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