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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 2.4 wins, so it did -23.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-23.7 pts
Called / graded
1/6
Expected from price
2.4
Flagged volume
$478.7k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$295k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July at 79¢) and the edge is -32.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 23% · n=3
40–60¢
0% vs 46% · n=2
60–80¢
100% vs 79% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$459.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.08M volume · 204 trades · since Jun 24, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$59.4k
Open P&L · 41 positions
−$503.8k
Closed-position win rate
78%
51 closed
Wallet age · markets
122d
91 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 5 | 1 | 2.2 | -23.4 pts |
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | -25.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | MED BUY Yes @ 22¢ | $95.0k 2.5× usual |
missed |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | MED BUY Yes @ 23¢ | $30.0k | missed |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | MED BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $113.7k 3.0× usual |
missed |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | MED BUY Yes @ 46¢ | $65.0k | missed |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢ | $83.2k 2.2× usual |
called |
 Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 25¢ | $13.0k | missed |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | MED SELL Argentina @ 74¢ | $38.5k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 57¢ | $27.8k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
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