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+$2,050No · avg 70¢ → 90.5¢ · $9,048+$808No · avg 80¢ → 95.4¢ · $5,002+$495No · avg 78¢ → 94.5¢ · $2,835 · 1 proven with, 0 against+$442No · avg 74¢ → 96¢ · $1,893+$146No · avg 82¢ → 95.5¢ · $1,036
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +7.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+7.2 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$191.5k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$41.5k
Last 30 days −$12.8k · $1.71M volume · 1,036 trades · since Nov 27, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$25.5k
Open P&L · 9 positions
−$67.0k
Closed-position win rate
90%
159 closed
Wallet age · markets
331d
167 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +7.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 92.8¢ | $27.8k | called |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | LOW BUY No @ 97.7¢ | $56.7k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 97.1¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 97¢ | $12.4k | excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98.1¢ | $36.5k | excluded |
 US recession in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 97.7¢ | $47.6k | excluded |
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