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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did -14.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-14.3 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.3
Flagged volume
$675.2k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±33.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$96.4k
Last 30 days −$75.7k · $5.41M volume · 3,163 trades · since Mar 17, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$812.3k
Open P&L · 42 positions
−$689.5k
Closed-position win rate
90%
113 closed
Wallet age · markets
221d
153 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 1.3 | -14.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| MED BUY Gen.G @ 77¢ | $52.7k 2.3× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Global Esports @ 73¢ | $20.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY New York Yankees @ 59¢ | $26.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Vitality @ 77¢ | $50.0k 2.2× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Chargers @ 81¢ | $20.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 67¢ | $49.0k 2.2× usual |
missed | |
| LOW BUY Atlanta Braves @ 70¢ | $70.0k 3.1× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 38¢ | $28.3k | called | |
| LOW BUY Belgium @ 47¢ | $20.0k | excluded | |
| MED BUY England @ 53¢ | $87.6k 3.9× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ | $20.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $80.0k 3.6× usual |
excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 84¢ | $25.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $40.0k | excluded | |
| LOW SELL Yes @ 93¢ | $11.6k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $10.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $20.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $10.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $20.0k | excluded | |
| LOW BUY Louisville Cardinals @ 32¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xf0b6a8…