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retordedgremlin125

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did -14.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-14.3 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.3
Flagged volume
$675.2k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±33.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$96.4k
Last 30 days −$75.7k · $5.41M volume · 3,163 trades · since Mar 17, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$812.3k
Open P&L · 42 positions
−$689.5k
Closed-position win rate
90%
113 closed
Wallet age · markets
221d
153 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Sports211.3-14.3 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
LoL: Gen.G vs Invictus Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group StageMED BUY Gen.G @ 77¢ $52.7k
2.3× usual
77% 21h agoexcluded
Valorant: Global Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Champions Group BLOW BUY Global Esports @ 73¢ $20.0k73% 22d agoexcluded
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York YankeesLOW BUY New York Yankees @ 59¢ $26.0k59% 31d agoexcluded
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries PlayoffsLOW BUY Vitality @ 77¢ $50.0k
2.2× usual
77% 34d agoexcluded
Cardinals vs. ChargersLOW BUY Chargers @ 81¢ $20.0k81% 40d agoexcluded
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend GroupLOW BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 67¢ $49.0k
2.2× usual
67% 86d agomissed
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta BravesLOW BUY Atlanta Braves @ 70¢ $70.0k
3.1× usual
70% 92d agoexcluded
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?LOW SELL Yes @ 38¢ $28.3k62% 106d agocalled
United States vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceLOW BUY Belgium @ 47¢ $20.0k47% 109d agoexcluded
Mexico vs. England: Team to AdvanceMED BUY England @ 53¢ $87.6k
3.9× usual
53% 110d agoexcluded
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ $20.0k76% 121d agoexcluded
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ $80.0k
3.6× usual
68% 122d agoexcluded
Will England win on 2026-06-23?LOW BUY Yes @ 84¢ $25.0k84% 122d agoexcluded
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ $40.0k100% 123d agoexcluded
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?LOW SELL Yes @ 93¢ $11.6k7% 123d agoexcluded
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ $10.0k40% 123d agoexcluded
Will England win on 2026-06-17?LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ $20.0k59% 128d agoexcluded
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ $10.0k64% 129d agoexcluded
Will France win on 2026-06-16?LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ $20.0k66% 129d agoexcluded
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State SpartansLOW BUY Louisville Cardinals @ 32¢ $14.9k32% 216d agoexcluded

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