faceverification

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.6 wins, so it did +11.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?+$15.6kYes · avg 80¢ → 93.5¢ · $107.3k · 1 proven with, 0 against Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?−$820Yes · avg 86¢ → 79¢ · $9,691

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Same side: 1 proven · 0 losing Other side: 1 proven · 0 losing

Price-adjusted edge

+11.7 pts

Called / graded

3/3

Expected from price

2.6

Flagged volume

$154.8k

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$19.1k

Last 30 days +$11.0k · $1.07M volume · 840 trades · since Apr 16, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$33.6k

Open P&L · 10 positions

−$6,932

Closed-position win rate

90%

29 closed

Wallet age · markets

191d

39 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Economy	3	3	2.6	+11.7 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢	$20.4k	92%	12h ago	pending
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢	$37.2k	88%	39d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 84¢	$26.6k	84%	39d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢	$46.5k	93%	101d ago	called
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 98.1¢	$10.9k	2%	128d ago	excluded
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW SELL No @ 98.3¢	$13.1k	2%	168d ago	excluded

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?pending

BUY Yes @ 92¢$20.4k

LOW faceverification · 12h ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 88¢$37.2k

LOW faceverification · 39d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 84¢$26.6k

LOW faceverification · 39d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 93¢$46.5k

LOW faceverification · 101d ago

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded

SELL Yes @ 98.1¢$10.9k

LOW faceverification · 128d ago

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded

SELL No @ 98.3¢$13.1k

LOW faceverification · 168d ago

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