← Wallets
−$184Colts · avg 51¢ → 50¢ · $18.6k+$247Under · avg 47¢ → 48¢ · $7,984−$219Steelers · avg 47¢ → 46¢ · $6,658−$52Cardinals · avg 51¢ → 50¢ · $5,252−$1Rice · avg 51¢ → 48¢ · $15
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 12. The prices it paid implied about 7.0 wins, so it did -16.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.
Price-adjusted edge
-16.3 pts
Called / graded
5/12
Expected from price
7.0
Flagged volume
$655.0k
Sample size12 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$371k12 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? at 53¢) and the edge is -22.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
43% vs 52% · n=7
60–80¢
40% vs 66% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$594.8k
Last 30 days +$79.7k · $24.39M volume · 13,394 trades · since Nov 17, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$5.53M
Open P&L · 225 positions
−$2.91M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
341d
1177 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 10 | 3 | 5.9 | -28.8 pts |
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.1 | +46.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spread: Vikings (-6.5) | LOW BUY Colts @ 51¢ | $15.8k | pending |
| Cowboys vs. Packers | LOW BUY Cowboys @ 52¢ | $21.9k | excluded |
| Steelers vs. Buccaneers | LOW BUY Buccaneers @ 44¢ | $11.2k | missed |
 Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays | LOW BUY Tampa Bay Rays @ 61¢ | $83.5k 3.8× usual |
missed |
| Colts vs. Commanders | LOW BUY Colts @ 64¢ | $18.1k | called |
| New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | LOW BUY New York Yankees @ 59¢ | $52.5k 2.4× usual |
missed |
| Lions vs. Bills | LOW BUY Bills @ 69¢ | $14.2k | called |
| Spread: Rams (-3.5) | LOW BUY Rams @ 51¢ | $40.8k | excluded |
 Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees | MED BUY New York Yankees @ 59¢ | $90.4k 4.1× usual |
missed |
 Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners | LOW BUY Detroit Tigers @ 41¢ | $66.5k 3.0× usual |
missed |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | MED BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 67¢ | $43.7k | missed |
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 70¢ | $12.6k | excluded |
| Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 61¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins | MED BUY Miami Marlins @ 57¢ | $47.5k 2.2× usual |
called |
| Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | MED BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 68¢ | $99.1k 4.5× usual |
missed |
 Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $11.7k | called |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $15.2k | called |
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