ppxtu

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +12.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?+$1,021No · avg 78¢ → 82¢ · $27.1k NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?+$2,613No · avg 86¢ → 97.9¢ · $22.4k US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31?+$1,148Yes · avg 52¢ → 68¢ · $5,118 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?−$510Yes · avg 20¢ → 12¢ · $690 · 0 proven with, 1 against Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?−$536Yes · avg 14¢ → 6¢ · $402 US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?−$803Yes · avg 25¢ → 6.4¢ · $271

Price-adjusted edge

+12.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.9

Flagged volume

$123.2k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±32.5 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$32.8k

Last 30 days −$7,568 · $1.07M volume · 516 trades · since May 12, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$49.7k

Open P&L · 8 positions

−$310

Closed-position win rate

78%

85 closed

Wallet age · markets

530d

90 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Economy	1	1	0.9	+12.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 80¢	$18.8k	80%	103d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢	$23.5k	88%	114d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 90.3¢	$27.5k	90%	114d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL No @ 82¢	$10.7k	18%	118d ago	missed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 97.6¢	$20.5k	2%	156d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96¢	$10.4k	96%	176d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98.3¢	$11.9k	98%	206d ago	excluded

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?called

BUY No @ 80¢$18.8k

LOW ppxtu · 103d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 88¢$23.5k

LOW ppxtu · 114d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?called

BUY No @ 90.3¢$27.5k

LOW ppxtu · 114d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?missed

SELL No @ 82¢$10.7k

LOW ppxtu · 118d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL Yes @ 97.6¢$20.5k

LOW ppxtu · 156d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 96¢$10.4k

LOW ppxtu · 176d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY Yes @ 98.3¢$11.9k

LOW ppxtu · 206d ago

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