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Treadmilled

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.1 wins, so it did -22.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

GTA 6 launch postponed again?+$443No · avg 65¢ → 96.6¢ · $1,355Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?−$76Yes · avg 69¢ → 20¢ · $32
Price-adjusted edge
-22.5 pts
Called / graded
1/5
Expected from price
2.1
Flagged volume
$337.8k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.0 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$52k
5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
−$52k$0
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? at 64¢) and the edge is -37.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 15% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 22% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 45% · n=1
60–80¢
50% vs 65% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$193.7k
Last 30 days +$65 · $13.59M volume · 4,826 trades · since Jul 22, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$304.9k
Open P&L · 12 positions
−$111.2k
Closed-position win rate
61%
154 closed
Wallet age · markets
824d
153 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Economy200.7-33.5 pts
Other311.5-15.2 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 45¢ $11.6k45% 54d agomissed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 22¢ $14.7k22% 108d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ $20.6k67% 131d agomissed
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $10.0k99% 144d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 15¢ $14.6k15% 149d agomissed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.1¢ $21.5k98% 194d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 64¢ $17.4k64% 232d agocalled
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢ $127.9k
6.5× usual
0% 264d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 91.1¢ $19.8k91% 267d agocalled
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $30.0k0% 269d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢ $49.7k
2.5× usual
99% 271d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed
BUY No @ 45¢$11.6k
LOW Treadmilled · 54d ago
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?missed
BUY Yes @ 22¢$14.7k
LOW Treadmilled · 108d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?missed
BUY Yes @ 67¢$20.6k
LOW Treadmilled · 131d ago
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$10.0k
LOW Treadmilled · 144d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?missed
BUY Yes @ 15¢$14.6k
LOW Treadmilled · 149d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 98.1¢$21.5k
LOW Treadmilled · 194d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?called
BUY No @ 64¢$17.4k
LOW Treadmilled · 232d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.7¢$127.9k
LOW Treadmilled · 264d ago
US government shutdown Saturday?called
BUY Yes @ 91.1¢$19.8k
LOW Treadmilled · 267d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$30.0k
LOW Treadmilled · 269d ago
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 99¢$49.7k
LOW Treadmilled · 271d ago

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