0xf559…f462

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 20 of 38. The prices it paid implied about 22.6 wins, so it did -6.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (-6.8 pts over 38 bets). Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?+$1,067Yes · avg 77¢ → 79¢ · $51.1k Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?−$3,657Yes · avg 32¢ → 26¢ · $16.3k · 0 proven with, 1 against Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?−$1,180Yes · avg 5.9¢ → 5.2¢ · $9,116 Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?−$132Yes · avg 2.8¢ → 2.8¢ · $3,650 Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?+$348Yes · avg 1.6¢ → 1.8¢ · $3,210 Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?+$53Yes · avg 34¢ → 34¢ · $3,201 Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?+$371Yes · avg 0.9¢ → 1.1¢ · $2,881 Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?−$1,309Yes · avg 50¢ → 31¢ · $2,086

Price-adjusted edge

-6.8 pts

Called / graded

20/38

Expected from price

22.6

Flagged volume

$2.18M

Sample size38 graded

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±7.6 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

−$50k

38 graded bets in the order they resolved · 20 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (Ravens vs. Falcons at 39¢) and the edge is -8.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

20–40¢

33% vs 35% · n=3

40–60¢

58% vs 53% · n=19

60–80¢

45% vs 66% · n=11

80–100¢

60% vs 85% · n=5

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$395.4k

Last 30 days −$87.0k · $21.58M volume · 4,110 trades · since Sep 02, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	35	18	20.0	-5.7 pts
Other	1	0	0.8	-85.0 pts
Politics	1	1	0.9	+5.3 pts
Economy	1	1	0.8	+19.4 pts

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Cowboys vs. Packers	LOW BUY Cowboys @ 52¢	$14.3k	52%	5d ago	missed
Cowboys vs. Packers	LOW BUY Cowboys @ 50¢	$24.0k	50%	5d ago	missed
Panthers vs. Eagles	LOW BUY Eagles @ 42¢	$20.0k	42%	5d ago	excluded
Texans vs. Jaguars	LOW BUY Texans @ 44¢	$10.9k	44%	5d ago	called
Memphis vs. Tulane	LOW BUY Memphis @ 69¢	$30.8k	69%	7d ago	excluded
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	LOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 62¢	$30.0k	62%	9d ago	missed
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-10-13?	LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢	$20.0k	52%	10d ago	called
Bills vs. Rams	LOW BUY Rams @ 62¢	$20.0k	62%	11d ago	missed
Ravens vs. Falcons	LOW BUY Ravens @ 39¢	$10.0k	39%	12d ago	called
49ers vs. Seahawks	LOW SELL Seahawks @ 28¢	$15.0k	72%	12d ago	excluded
49ers vs. Seahawks	LOW BUY Seahawks @ 56¢	$30.0k	56%	12d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	LOW BUY Team Falcons @ 57¢	$30.0k	57%	17d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	LOW SELL Natus Vincere @ 42¢	$29.5k	58%	17d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	LOW BUY Natus Vincere @ 43¢	$30.0k	43%	17d ago	missed
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 1WIN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	LOW BUY Spirit @ 65¢	$10.0k	65%	17d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	LOW BUY Natus Vincere @ 48¢	$10.0k	48%	20d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs	LOW BUY Vitality @ 76¢	$22.5k	76%	34d ago	missed
Lions vs. Bills	LOW BUY Lions @ 31¢	$10.0k	31%	36d ago	missed
Spread: Bills (-5.5)	LOW BUY Lions @ 51¢	$13.0k	51%	36d ago	missed
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-18?	LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢	$10.0k	41%	36d ago	missed
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-17?	LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢	$23.7k	60%	37d ago	called
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	LOW BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 53¢	$10.0k	53%	37d ago	excluded
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	LOW BUY Milwaukee Brewers @ 54¢	$15.0k	54%	37d ago	called
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-09-15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢	$20.0k	59%	38d ago	missed
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton	LOW BUY Alexander Zverev @ 59¢	$69.9k 3.5× usual	59%	41d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 22¢	$16.2k	22%	42d ago	missed
US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Alexander Blockx	MED BUY Karen Khachanov @ 63¢	$34.3k	63%	44d ago	called
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group B	LOW BUY FaZe @ 60¢	$33.9k	60%	45d ago	missed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 45¢	$20.2k	55%	45d ago	called
US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen	LOW BUY Frances Tiafoe @ 60¢	$20.0k	60%	45d ago	called
US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz	LOW BUY Carlos Alcaraz @ 78¢	$50.0k 2.5× usual	78%	45d ago	missed
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TheMongolz (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A	LOW BUY TheMongolz @ 52¢	$10.0k	52%	46d ago	missed
US Open ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander Blockx	LOW BUY Alexander Blockx @ 66¢	$10.0k	66%	46d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 42¢	$20.6k	42%	51d ago	missed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 42¢	$29.6k	42%	53d ago	missed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 42¢	$20.0k	42%	53d ago	missed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 49¢	$15.2k	51%	54d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	MED SELL No @ 56¢	$26.1k	44%	55d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢	$11.4k	53%	56d ago	missed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 55¢	$25.6k	55%	56d ago	missed
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B	LOW BUY FUT Esports @ 59¢	$39.4k	59%	57d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 67¢	$40.9k 2.1× usual	33%	57d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 67¢	$14.4k	33%	58d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 64¢	$32.0k	36%	58d ago	called
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-08-24?	LOW BUY No @ 60¢	$20.0k	60%	60d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢	$80.0k 4.0× usual	69%	61d ago	missed
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-23?	LOW BUY No @ 79¢	$10.0k	79%	61d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	LOW BUY FUT Esports @ 40¢	$14.2k	40%	63d ago	called
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	LOW BUY Vitality @ 58¢	$15.0k	58%	63d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FURIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	MED BUY FURIA @ 57¢	$49.3k 2.5× usual	57%	64d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL No @ 72¢	$17.7k	28%	65d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 70¢	$50.3k 2.5× usual	30%	65d ago	called
Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil Medvedev	LOW BUY Daniil Medvedev @ 58¢	$22.0k	58%	66d ago	missed
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays	LOW BUY Tampa Bay Rays @ 61¢	$16.6k	61%	67d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL No @ 70¢	$17.3k	30%	67d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢	$27.0k	74%	69d ago	missed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 74¢	$10.3k	26%	69d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢	$20.0k	67%	72d ago	missed
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils	LOW BUY Rafael Jodar @ 58¢	$53.1k 2.7× usual	58%	73d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢	$22.2k	63%	76d ago	missed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 55¢	$15.0k	55%	80d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	LOW SELL No @ 63¢	$15.3k	37%	80d ago	missed
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs	LOW BUY Spirit @ 79¢	$20.0k	79%	83d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	LOW BUY No @ 82¢	$20.0k	82%	85d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢	$10.2k	75%	86d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢	$25.0k	75%	86d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 81¢	$11.5k	81%	90d ago	called
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	LOW BUY Spain @ 59¢	$15.0k	59%	98d ago	called
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 23¢	$15.9k	23%	100d ago	missed
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 20¢	$11.8k	80%	100d ago	called
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance	LOW BUY England @ 65¢	$20.0k	65%	105d ago	called
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 15¢	$15.0k	15%	119d ago	missed
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 14¢	$11.6k	86%	119d ago	missed
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	LOW BUY No @ 71¢	$20.0k	71%	123d ago	excluded
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢	$17.0k	81%	123d ago	excluded
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 12¢	$10.1k	88%	124d ago	called
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢	$19.6k	62%	126d ago	called
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL No @ 91.9¢	$19.5k	8%	127d ago	missed
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED SELL No @ 89¢	$20.4k	11%	129d ago	missed
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	LOW BUY No @ 34¢	$12.0k	34%	130d ago	missed
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 90¢	$29.3k	90%	135d ago	called
Spurs vs. Knicks	LOW BUY Knicks @ 54¢	$30.0k	54%	135d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$20.0k	100%	138d ago	excluded
Spread: Spurs (-6.5)	LOW BUY Knicks @ 51¢	$15.0k	51%	140d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 85¢	$10.2k	85%	145d ago	missed
Spurs vs. Thunder	LOW BUY Thunder @ 58¢	$11.6k	58%	147d ago	missed
Thunder vs. Spurs	LOW BUY Thunder @ 41¢	$15.0k	41%	148d ago	excluded
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5	LOW BUY Under @ 50¢	$11.6k	50%	155d ago	called
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	LOW BUY Pistons @ 64¢	$15.4k	64%	159d ago	excluded
76ers vs. Knicks	LOW BUY Knicks @ 80¢	$14.7k	80%	170d ago	called
Rockets vs. Lakers	MED BUY Lakers @ 77¢	$34.3k	77%	188d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW SELL Yes @ 98.4¢	$19.7k	2%	188d ago	excluded
Warriors vs. Suns	LOW BUY Suns @ 59¢	$10.2k	59%	189d ago	called
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢	$20.0k	67%	203d ago	called
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW SELL No @ 37¢	$16.1k	63%	267d ago	called
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY No @ 57¢	$12.0k	57%	268d ago	missed
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	MED SELL No @ 85¢	$61.8k 3.1× usual	15%	335d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 94.7¢	$66.9k 3.4× usual	95%	354d ago	called

0xf559…f462

Current positions

Graded P&L at their stakes

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