← Wallets
+$2,868Yes · avg 60¢ → 65¢ · $37.1k+$2,366No · avg 61¢ → 80¢ · $9,553+$5,028Yes · avg 30¢ → 80¢ · $7,993+$629No · avg 67¢ → 74¢ · $7,114 · 1 proven with, 0 against+$3,067No · avg 48¢ → 92.5¢ · $6,308−$1,194Yes · avg 58¢ → 47¢ · $4,876+$2,058No · avg 33¢ → 80¢ · $3,504 · 1 proven with, 0 against+$1,883No · avg 30¢ → 66¢ · $3,407
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 6 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 4.4 wins, so it did +23.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +15.9 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+23.4 pts
Called / graded
6/7
Expected from price
4.4
Flagged volume
$1.92M
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$123k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 6 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept at 32¢) and the edge is +15.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 7% · n=1
20–40¢
100% vs 32% · n=1
40–60¢
100% vs 57% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 77% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 88% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$396.7k
Last 30 days +$1,066 · $32.56M volume · 50,349 trades · since Jun 02, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.53M
Open P&L · 243 positions
−$1.32M
Closed-position win rate
69%
173 closed
Wallet age · markets
144d
328 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 0.9 | +5.2 pts |
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +4.2 pts |
| Economy | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | +55.5 pts |
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | +19.1 pts |
History
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excludedBUY Yes @ 81¢$237.7k
MED coali10 · 131d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?excludedSELL Yes @ 94¢$15.2k
LOW coali10 · 131d ago
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excludedBUY No @ 99.6¢$49.8k
LOW coali10 · 142d ago
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