Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$261
Return on staked
+37.3%
Bets
6/7 won
Edge vs price
+23.4 pts ±14.4
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jul 07, 14:33 EDTOct 01, 22:32 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | 96¢ | called | 22d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 57¢ | called | 53d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 32¢ | called | 61d ago |
| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | 85¢ | called | 83d ago |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | 77¢ | called | 96d ago |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 7¢ | missed | 96d ago |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 83¢ | called | 108d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.