0xcca9…4c9f

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did -10.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?+$15.7kNo · avg 38¢ → 91.5¢ · $26.8k Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?+$5,390Yes · avg 19¢ → 71¢ · $7,370 Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?+$315No · avg 70¢ → 76¢ · $4,635 Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?+$312Yes · avg 78¢ → 85¢ · $3,912 Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?−$4,924Yes · avg 55¢ → 16¢ · $1,999 Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?−$4,260Yes · avg 61¢ → 9¢ · $736 Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?−$6,977Yes · avg 44¢ → 3.8¢ · $645 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?+$453Yes · avg 0¢ → 14¢ · $453

Price-adjusted edge

-10.0 pts

Called / graded

0/4

Expected from price

0.4

Flagged volume

$75.8k

Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±14.8 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$2,287

Last 30 days −$2,524 · $1.91M volume · 3,802 trades · since Mar 01, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$43.3k

Open P&L · 101 positions

−$48.9k

Closed-position win rate

68%

192 closed

Wallet age · markets

237d

276 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	4	0	0.4	-10.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	LOW SELL No @ 95¢	$24.9k	5%	108d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW SELL No @ 83¢	$11.9k	17%	141d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	LOW SELL No @ 93¢	$16.7k	7%	162d ago	missed
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW SELL No @ 89¢	$22.3k	11%	206d ago	missed

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?missed

SELL No @ 95¢$24.9k

LOW 0xcca9…4c9f · 108d ago

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?missed

SELL No @ 83¢$11.9k

LOW 0xcca9…4c9f · 141d ago

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?missed

SELL No @ 93¢$16.7k

LOW 0xcca9…4c9f · 162d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?missed

SELL No @ 89¢$22.3k

LOW 0xcca9…4c9f · 206d ago

Share this record

<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0xcca90a5d3c8f2d6663817e3650d6adbe9ab44c9f"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0xcca90a5d3c8f2d6663817e3650d6adbe9ab44c9f.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>

JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xcca90a…