← Wallets
+$285No · avg 94.8¢ → 96.3¢ · $18.5k−$147Yes · avg 22¢ → 22¢ · $11.0k+$165Yes · avg 94.3¢ → 96.3¢ · $8,122+$557Yes · avg 31¢ → 34¢ · $7,799+$3,293Yes · avg 3.5¢ → 9.6¢ · $5,226+$53No · avg 95.4¢ → 96.7¢ · $4,193+$209No · avg 24¢ → 26¢ · $2,957+$117Yes · avg 71¢ → 74¢ · $2,483
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 2.9 wins, so it did +26.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +20.8 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+26.7 pts
Called / graded
5/8
Expected from price
2.9
Flagged volume
$198.1k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$37k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept at 32¢) and the edge is +20.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 7% · n=1
20–40¢
33% vs 25% · n=3
40–60¢
100% vs 51% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$127.7k
Last 30 days +$5,342 · $149.56M volume · 134,464 trades · since Aug 08, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.25M
Open P&L · 128 positions
−$42.2k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
1898d
2583 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 8 | 5 | 2.9 | +26.7 pts |
History
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