-nkt-

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did -45.4 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?+$3Yes · avg 68¢ → 93.5¢ · $9 · 1 proven with, 0 against

Price-adjusted edge

-45.4 pts

Called / graded

0/4

Expected from price

1.8

Flagged volume

$57.5k

Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$25.9k

Last 30 days −$7,262 · $2.04M volume · 1,978 trades · since Nov 01, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

−$25.0k

Open P&L · 2 positions

−$797

Closed-position win rate

52%

52 closed

Wallet age · markets

722d

62 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Economy	4	0	1.8	-45.4 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢	$13.4k	67%	71d ago	missed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢	$11.0k	63%	75d ago	missed
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 56¢	$12.8k	44%	82d ago	missed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 92¢	$20.2k	8%	128d ago	missed

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?missed

BUY Yes @ 67¢$13.4k

LOW -nkt- · 71d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?missed

BUY Yes @ 63¢$11.0k

LOW -nkt- · 75d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?missed

SELL Yes @ 56¢$12.8k

LOW -nkt- · 82d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed

SELL Yes @ 92¢$20.2k

LOW -nkt- · 128d ago

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