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+$42Yes · avg 79¢ → 80¢ · $3,542+$228Yes · avg 73¢ → 78¢ · $3,257−$67No · avg 70¢ → 64¢ · $649
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did +8.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+8.8 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.8
Flagged volume
$96.7k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$24.9k
Last 30 days −$334 · $1.91M volume · 1,615 trades · since Mar 18, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$34.1k
Open P&L · 20 positions
−$11.5k
Closed-position win rate
57%
134 closed
Wallet age · markets
220d
154 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +6.2 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +11.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $30.3k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢ | $24.3k | called |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $12.5k | called |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 93.8¢ | $19.5k | called |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x953164…