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What this means. A wallet put $39.8k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 17% chance. It lost. This wallet has no clear edge yet (-2.9 pts over 22 bets). Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$39.8k
BUY Yes @ 17¢ · 230,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideEarly (>24h before close)Economy
What happened
Wallet TheReturnOfDarthMaul took Yes (buy) for $39.8k at an average 17¢. At that price the market implied a 17% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $39.8k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 17¢ means
17%chance the market gave
+478American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 17¢
- Implied odds
- 17.3%
- Size
- $39.8k
- Placed
- Jun 28, 20:45 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 28, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- TheReturnOfDarthMaul
- Tx
- 0x1daaeea8…
This wallet's graded record
15/22-2.9 pts
expected 15.6 from price
Share this receipt
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $19.7k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $68.8k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $27.2k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $264.6k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $20.5k | excluded |