← Wallets
+$23.0kNo · avg 71¢ → 80¢ · $201.3k+$11.2kNo · avg 65¢ → 70¢ · $142.4k+$6,309No · avg 85¢ → 91.5¢ · $91.5k · 1 proven with, 0 against−$20.0kNo · avg 62¢ → 50¢ · $80.9k+$5,566No · avg 83¢ → 90.5¢ · $63.3k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 4.2 wins, so it did -24.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-24.8 pts
Called / graded
3/5
Expected from price
4.2
Flagged volume
$394.8k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$34k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? at 63¢) and the edge is -40.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
60–80¢
100% vs 63% · n=1
80–100¢
50% vs 90% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$146.7k
Last 30 days +$106.9k · $4.18M volume · 2,395 trades · since Feb 23, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$201.6k
Open P&L · 5 positions
+$26.1k
Closed-position win rate
57%
115 closed
Wallet age · markets
243d
113 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.9 | -89.8 pts |
| Crypto | 3 | 2 | 2.5 | -17.7 pts |
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +19.1 pts |
History
Share this record
<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0x56ad6bd05999e0f33ea9c05a48ccb1364a46f13e"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0x56ad6bd05999e0f33ea9c05a48ccb1364a46f13e.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>
JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x56ad6b…