Weekly report card
Week 2026-28
Jul 06, 00:00 EDT – Jul 12, 23:59 EDT · markets that resolved this week
Price-adjusted edge
-1.6 pts
Called
259/450
Expected from price
266.1
Std. error
±1.9
In week 2026-28, 450 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 259 times; entry prices implied 266.1. Whales did no better than the price (-1.6 pts). One week is a small sample.
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 440 | 250 | 257.5 | -1.7 pts |
| Other | 10 | 9 | 8.6 | +4.1 pts |
Best calls (lowest implied odds that won)
Biggest misses
Every graded flag
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Belgium @ 47¢ | $1.18M | called |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $1.14M | missed |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY England @ 66¢ | $923.7k | called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $273.5k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 75¢ | $271.1k 5.3× usual |
called |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY United States @ 53¢ | $260.5k | missed |
 Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 96.6¢ | $251.4k 16.4× usual |
called |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 86¢ | $250.2k 4.9× usual |
called |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 96.7¢ | $249.7k 10.4× usual |
called |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 96.7¢ | $249.7k 7.7× usual |
called |
| Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Egypt? | MED BUY No @ 93¢ | $222.5k 8.4× usual |
called |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $221.6k | missed |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | MED BUY No @ 76¢ | $212.2k 3.7× usual |
called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | MED BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $200.0k 4.0× usual |
missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | MED BUY No @ 39¢ | $193.7k 5.8× usual |
missed |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | MED BUY Belgium @ 48¢ | $186.0k 5.6× usual |
called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | MED BUY Yes @ 72¢ | $180.0k 2.0× usual |
called |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 86¢ | $171.3k 6.3× usual |
called |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 97¢ | $168.0k 4.2× usual |
called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | MED BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $164.3k 2.1× usual |
called |
 Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 94.2¢ | $162.0k 7.0× usual |
called |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 75¢ | $160.7k 2.5× usual |
called |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | MED BUY United States @ 53¢ | $147.2k 3.3× usual |
missed |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 96.5¢ | $144.8k 9.8× usual |
called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | MED BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $127.4k 3.9× usual |
called |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $126.0k | missed |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 94¢ | $122.2k 5.3× usual |
called |
| Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Egypt? | MED BUY No @ 93¢ | $120.6k 5.3× usual |
called |
| Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 26¢ | $119.9k | missed |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Argentina @ 86¢ | $118.5k 4.5× usual |
called |
 Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 96.8¢ | $112.3k 2.8× usual |
called |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | MED BUY United States @ 53¢ | $106.0k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | MED BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $105.9k 5.4× usual |
called |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 65¢ | $105.0k | called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $102.2k 3.1× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | MED BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $100.4k | called |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 7.5¢ | $100.0k | missed |
 Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 90.2¢ | $100.0k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | MED BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $100.0k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $100.0k | called |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 65¢ | $100.0k | called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | MED BUY Yes @ 72¢ | $100.0k | called |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 96.9¢ | $99.4k | called |
 Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 96.5¢ | $99.3k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $98.7k | called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $97.5k | called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $97.3k | missed |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | MED BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $94.7k 2.5× usual |
missed |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 94.7¢ | $94.7k | called |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $94.0k | called |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED SELL No @ 94.1¢ | $93.4k 2.4× usual |
missed |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 65¢ | $92.3k 3.7× usual |
called |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | MED BUY Belgium @ 46¢ | $92.0k 2.3× usual |
called |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 64¢ | $92.0k | called |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | MED BUY United States @ 53¢ | $91.1k 2.4× usual |
missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW BUY Yes @ 72¢ | $90.0k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | MED BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $90.0k 2.7× usual |
called |
 Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 95.9¢ | $89.2k | called |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ | $89.1k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | MED BUY No @ 38¢ | $88.6k 4.2× usual |
missed |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | MED BUY United States @ 53¢ | $88.3k 3.6× usual |
missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $86.8k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | MED BUY No @ 39¢ | $85.6k | missed |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 94.4¢ | $85.4k 3.1× usual |
called |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 96.4¢ | $82.6k | called |
 Wimbledon WTA: Marie Bouzkova vs Elise Mertens | MED BUY Marie Bouzkova @ 47¢ | $79.1k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | MED BUY No @ 39¢ | $78.6k | missed |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 86¢ | $77.4k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $77.0k | missed |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Over @ 46¢ | $72.0k 2.6× usual |
missed |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY Norway @ 36¢ | $70.1k | missed |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Norway @ 36¢ | $69.6k | missed |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Under @ 52¢ | $69.5k | called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY No @ 40¢ | $66.9k | missed |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 95.2¢ | $66.1k 3.1× usual |
called |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ | $65.7k | called |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 86¢ | $64.5k 4.5× usual |
called |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 66¢ | $62.8k | called |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | MED BUY Egypt @ 14¢ | $61.6k | missed |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 96.4¢ | $61.1k | called |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 96.7¢ | $59.2k | called |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ | $58.9k | called |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | MED BUY United States @ 53¢ | $58.5k 3.0× usual |
missed |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 7.6¢ | $58.4k | missed |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 64¢ | $57.8k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 94.7¢ | $56.8k | called |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ | $56.5k 2.6× usual |
called |
| Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 79¢ | $55.0k | missed |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 95.9¢ | $53.2k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY No @ 39¢ | $50.6k | missed |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Belgium @ 48¢ | $50.4k 2.0× usual |
called |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 65¢ | $50.0k 5.0× usual |
called |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 6.8¢ | $50.0k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $50.0k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $50.0k | called |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 95¢ | $50.0k 2.3× usual |
called |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY United States @ 53¢ | $50.0k | missed |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 3.6¢ | $50.0k | missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $49.5k | missed |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Under @ 51¢ | $49.1k 2.3× usual |
called |
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