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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did +10.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+10.3 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.8
Flagged volume
$290.1k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$60.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.65M volume · 694 trades · since Apr 06, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$26.2k
Open P&L · 10 positions
−$15.2k
Closed-position win rate
40%
153 closed
Wallet age · markets
201d
111 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 2 | 1.8 | +10.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $16.0k | called |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 90¢ | $94.0k | called |
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $152.2k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $27.9k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xf3443d…