← Wallets
−$6,584No · avg 95.2¢ → 91.4¢ · $158.1k−$665Yes · avg 98¢ → 97.4¢ · $104.8k−$442Arsenal FC · avg 97.6¢ → 97¢ · $75.6k−$554Aston Villa FC · avg 93.4¢ → 92.5¢ · $59.4k−$1,457Aston Villa FC · avg 97.9¢ → 94.7¢ · $43.7k−$45Over · avg 96.3¢ → 96¢ · $13.1k+$4Yes · avg 74¢ → 74¢ · $1,601+$2No · avg 97.9¢ → 98.5¢ · $381
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 30 of 33. The prices it paid implied about 27.9 wins, so it did +6.4 pts better than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (+6.4 pts over 33 bets). Without its single best bet: +5.9 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
None of its 2 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.
Price-adjusted edge
+6.4 pts
Called / graded
30/33
Expected from price
27.9
Flagged volume
$4.51M
Sample size33 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±6.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$173k33 graded bets in the order they resolved · 30 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? at 80¢) and the edge is +5.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
0% vs 60% · n=1
60–80¢
0% vs 78% · n=1
80–100¢
97% vs 86% · n=31
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$279.9k
Last 30 days −$377.5k · $40.82M volume · 23,138 trades · since Jun 02, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$2.31M
Open P&L · 10 positions
−$21.8k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
144d
4556 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 33 | 30 | 27.9 | +6.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spread: Manchester City FC (-4.5) | LOW BUY Aston Villa FC @ 98¢ | $24.5k | pending |
 Pistons vs. Heat | LOW BUY Pistons @ 98.8¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 98.3¢ | $36.7k | excluded |
 Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.3¢ | $24.5k | excluded |
| Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5) | LOW BUY Real Madrid CF @ 97.7¢ | $14.5k | excluded |
| Spread: Arsenal FC (-3.5) | LOW BUY FC Bayern München @ 99¢ | $24.8k | excluded |
 Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | MED BUY No @ 96¢ | $25.5k | pending |
| Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5) | LOW BUY Real Madrid CF @ 97.6¢ | $24.8k | excluded |
| Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-1.5) | LOW BUY FC Internazionale Milano @ 98.4¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | LOW BUY No @ 95.5¢ | $13.2k | pending |
| Spread: Knicks (-19.5) | LOW BUY 76ers @ 93¢ | $19.1k | excluded |
| Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) | MED BUY FC Bayern München @ 96.5¢ | $29.2k | called |
| Celtics vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 98¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-20? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢ | $23.4k | excluded |
 Commanders vs. 49ers | HIGH BUY 49ers @ 88¢ | $188.0k 7.2× usual |
excluded |
| Cardinals vs. Rams | MED BUY Rams @ 87¢ | $51.3k | excluded |
| Cardinals vs. Rams | MED SELL Rams @ 87¢ | $22.0k | called |
| Cardinals vs. Rams | MED BUY Rams @ 88¢ | $26.4k | missed |
| Bills vs. Rams | LOW BUY Rams @ 85¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
 Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz | MED BUY Carlos Alcaraz @ 93¢ | $34.2k | missed |
| Falcons vs. Saints | LOW BUY Falcons @ 97.9¢ | $22.1k | excluded |
| Titans vs. Ravens | LOW BUY Ravens @ 97.2¢ | $33.2k | excluded |
| Falcons vs. Packers | LOW BUY Falcons @ 95¢ | $14.2k | excluded |
| Giants vs. Rams | LOW BUY Rams @ 98.8¢ | $67.9k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Giants vs. Rams | LOW BUY Rams @ 95¢ | $16.7k | excluded |
| Raiders vs. Chargers | MED BUY Raiders @ 99¢ | $174.0k 6.7× usual |
excluded |
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-20? | LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢ | $10.9k | excluded |
| Lions vs. Bills | MED BUY Bills @ 95.6¢ | $51.5k | excluded |
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 97.5¢ | $23.1k | excluded |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ | $15.5k | excluded |
| Will Elche CF win on 2026-09-15? | MED BUY No @ 93¢ | $32.7k | called |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton | MED BUY Alexander Zverev @ 92¢ | $52.8k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov | MED BUY Alexander Zverev @ 92.6¢ | $56.0k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-09? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 95¢ | $285.0k 10.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-09? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 95¢ | $296.4k 11.4× usual |
called |
| US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz | LOW BUY Carlos Alcaraz @ 78¢ | $10.1k | missed |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢ | $18.3k | called |
| US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Learner Tien | LOW BUY Learner Tien @ 62¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-09? | MED BUY Yes @ 95¢ | $25.7k | called |
| US Open ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Flavio Cobolli | LOW BUY Flavio Cobolli @ 93¢ | $18.6k | excluded |
| Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-08-26? | MED BUY No @ 94¢ | $91.2k 3.5× usual |
called |
| Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-08-26? | MED BUY No @ 93¢ | $98.9k 3.8× usual |
called |
| Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-08-26? | MED BUY No @ 91¢ | $58.9k 2.3× usual |
called |
| Cincinnati Open: Novak Djokovic vs Thiago Agustin Tirante | MED BUY Novak Djokovic @ 85¢ | $27.6k | excluded |
 France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY France @ 56¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | MED BUY France @ 60¢ | $30.3k | missed |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 97.5¢ | $146.6k 5.6× usual |
excluded |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 76¢ | $83.6k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 90¢ | $23.5k | excluded |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 68¢ | $14.2k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Argentina @ 86¢ | $118.5k 4.5× usual |
called |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Belgium @ 94¢ | $13.7k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 93¢ | $116.4k 4.5× usual |
called |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 89¢ | $21.8k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | MED BUY Yes @ 91.8¢ | $59.9k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? | MED BUY No @ 97.6¢ | $903.8k 34.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY No @ 97.7¢ | $30.8k | excluded |
 Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | MED BUY No @ 82¢ | $94.2k 3.6× usual |
called |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | MED BUY Yes @ 82¢ | $35.1k | called |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY No @ 82¢ | $12.9k | called |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢ | $18.1k | called |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢ | $11.5k | called |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | MED BUY No @ 82¢ | $34.5k | called |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ | $21.0k | called |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | MED BUY No @ 82¢ | $41.7k | called |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢ | $11.0k | called |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ | $13.8k | called |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | MED BUY Yes @ 81¢ | $25.5k | called |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | MED BUY Yes @ 82¢ | $77.3k 3.0× usual |
called |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | MED BUY No @ 81¢ | $59.1k 2.3× usual |
called |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | MED BUY Yes @ 81¢ | $64.4k 2.5× usual |
called |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | MED BUY Yes @ 81¢ | $30.7k | called |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | MED BUY No @ 82¢ | $27.9k | called |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | MED BUY Yes @ 82¢ | $49.5k | called |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | MED BUY No @ 81¢ | $39.6k | called |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | MED BUY No @ 81¢ | $97.8k 3.8× usual |
called |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢ | $17.8k | called |
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