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What this means. A wallet put $50.0k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 4% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$50.0k
BUY Yes @ 3.6¢ · 1,375,320 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog side2 fills in 1hSports
What happened
Wallet 0x5fae…78f1 took Yes (buy) for $50.0k at an average 3.6¢. At that price the market implied a 4% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $50.0k+1
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 4¢ means
4%chance the market gave
+2651American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 3.6¢
- Implied odds
- 3.6%
- As American odds
- +2651 no vig
- Size
- $50.0k
- Placed
- Jul 06, 14:27 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 07, 01:08 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- 0x5fae…78f1
- Tx
- 0x8a8e30e9…
This wallet's graded record
0/5-5.3 pts
expected 0.3 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -4 ptsYes price · entry 3.6¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢ | $13.4k | excluded |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ | $20.2k | excluded |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 97.1¢ | $13.2k | excluded |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 97.1¢ | $89.9k | excluded |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ | $11.0k | called |