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+$66.8kNo · avg 84¢ → 97.5¢ · $492.6k+$3,151No · avg 93.6¢ → 96.8¢ · $96.7k+$24No · avg 95.3¢ → 98.2¢ · $800
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 8 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 7.6 wins, so it did +4.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +4.2 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+4.5 pts
Called / graded
8/8
Expected from price
7.6
Flagged volume
$1.62M
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±7.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$37k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 8 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 93¢) and the edge is +4.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
80–100¢
100% vs 95% · n=8
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$9,978
Last 30 days +$5,742 · $3.81M volume · 416 trades · since Jan 20, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$114.9k
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$106.0k
Closed-position win rate
100%
16 closed
Wallet age · markets
642d
20 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 6 | 5.7 | +4.3 pts |
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.9 | +5.3 pts |
History
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