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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.3 wins, so it did -33.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-33.2 pts
Called / graded
1/4
Expected from price
2.3
Flagged volume
$135.3k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$391.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.01M volume · 2,483 trades · since May 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$371.0k
Open P&L · 100 positions
−$729.1k
Closed-position win rate
93%
74 closed
Wallet age · markets
148d
192 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 1 | 1.9 | -30.0 pts |
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -43.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Norway @ 36¢ | $14.4k | missed |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 86¢ | $64.5k 4.5× usual |
called |
| Portugal vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 69¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $20.0k | missed |
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 43¢ | $14.4k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x839e95…