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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 9 of 12. The prices it paid implied about 6.3 wins, so it did +22.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 12 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +17.6 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+22.6 pts
Called / graded
9/12
Expected from price
6.3
Flagged volume
$2.73M
Sample size12 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$433k12 graded bets in the order they resolved · 9 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 23¢) and the edge is +17.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 13% · n=1
20–40¢
50% vs 22% · n=2
40–60¢
80% vs 54% · n=5
60–80¢
100% vs 72% · n=3
80–100¢
100% vs 86% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$1.59M
Last 30 days −$0 · $13.87M volume · 1,946 trades · since May 09, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$2.99M
Open P&L · 34 positions
−$1.38M
Closed-position win rate
94%
52 closed
Wallet age · markets
168d
85 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 10 | 7 | 5.1 | +18.8 pts |
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | +41.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-08-18? | LOW BUY No @ 55¢ | $19.5k | called |
| Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-08-18? | LOW SELL Yes @ 48¢ | $14.7k | called |
| Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-08-18? | LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $13.4k | missed |
 England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 46¢ | $47.9k | excluded |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 46¢ | $131.3k 2.6× usual |
called |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | MED SELL Spain @ 91.2¢ | $232.2k 4.5× usual |
excluded |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | MED BUY Spain @ 66¢ | $167.2k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 23¢ | $21.7k | called |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 75¢ | $271.1k 5.3× usual |
called |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Under @ 55¢ | $55.1k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 64¢ | $98.4k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Argentina @ 74¢ | $382.2k 7.4× usual |
excluded |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 86¢ | $250.2k 4.9× usual |
called |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | MED SELL United States @ 53¢ | $85.3k | called |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | MED BUY United States @ 51¢ | $82.5k | missed |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 21¢ | $25.3k | missed |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $35.9k | excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY No @ 59¢ | $40.0k | missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | MED BUY Yes @ 69¢ | $138.5k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $44.1k | called |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $64.4k | called |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY No @ 49¢ | $38.7k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 13¢ | $27.9k | missed |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 35¢ | $39.8k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $27.9k | called |
 Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev | MED BUY Flavio Cobolli @ 27¢ | $32.7k | excluded |
 Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW BUY No @ 59¢ | $57.5k | called |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW BUY No @ 58¢ | $76.2k | called |
 Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $202.3k 3.9× usual |
excluded |
| Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? | LOW BUY No @ 50¢ | $10.8k | called |
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