← Wallets
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 18 of 32. The prices it paid implied about 14.1 wins, so it did +12.2 pts better than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (+12.2 pts over 32 bets). Without its single best bet: +9.7 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+12.2 pts
Called / graded
18/32
Expected from price
14.1
Flagged volume
$2.58M
Sample size32 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±8.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$1.2M32 graded bets in the order they resolved · 18 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 13¢) and the edge is +9.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
50% vs 11% · n=6
20–40¢
50% vs 27% · n=4
40–60¢
36% vs 50% · n=14
60–80¢
100% vs 66% · n=8
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$4.15M
Last 30 days +$0 · $54.99M volume · 57,355 trades · since Jun 09, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$11.66M
Open P&L · 74 positions
−$7.46M
Closed-position win rate
99%
83 closed
Wallet age · markets
137d
156 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 32 | 18 | 14.1 | +12.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-07-18? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $260.0k 5.9× usual |
missed |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | MED BUY France @ 56¢ | $168.8k 3.8× usual |
excluded |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 23¢ | $44.3k | called |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 21¢ | $29.8k | called |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Under @ 52¢ | $43.9k | called |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 66¢ | $62.8k | called |
| Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 | MED BUY Over @ 62¢ | $86.0k | excluded |
 Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 6.6¢ | $16.1k | missed |
| Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 68¢ | $20.4k | called |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | MED BUY No @ 43¢ | $35.0k | missed |
 Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 2.2¢ | $16.4k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $24.2k | called |
| Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Over @ 32¢ | $17.5k | missed |
| Spread: Spain (-1.5) | LOW BUY Spain @ 40¢ | $15.9k | missed |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $159.0k 3.6× usual |
missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | MED BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $83.1k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | MED BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $75.1k | called |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 14¢ | $26.3k | called |
| Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 46¢ | $22.0k | called |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $14.1k | called |
 Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 13¢ | $37.8k | missed |
 Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 1.6¢ | $35.0k | excluded |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 14¢ | $113.3k 2.6× usual |
called |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $97.4k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | HIGH BUY No @ 31¢ | $124.0k 2.8× usual |
missed |
| Spread: Portugal (-1.5) | LOW BUY Uzbekistan @ 42¢ | $14.2k | missed |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | HIGH BUY No @ 57¢ | $136.4k 3.1× usual |
missed |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $199.9k 4.6× usual |
called |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | MED BUY No @ 53¢ | $51.9k | called |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $25.5k | missed |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 76¢ | $114.3k 2.6× usual |
called |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $141.9k 3.2× usual |
missed |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 13¢ | $105.0k 2.4× usual |
called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | MED BUY Yes @ 70¢ | $40.9k | called |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY No @ 49¢ | $17.7k | missed |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | MED BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $36.8k | called |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 8.6¢ | $67.4k | missed |
Share this record
<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0xe549581668a5751c1972d3ad2d1991d900bd2d54"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0xe549581668a5751c1972d3ad2d1991d900bd2d54.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>
JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xe54958…