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What this means. A wallet put $85.6k on No, at a price that gave it a 39% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 10 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$85.6k
BUY No @ 39¢ · 217,161 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $10k2 fills in 1hSports
What happened
Wallet Sparkling8899 took No (buy) for $85.6k at an average 39¢. At that price the market implied a 39% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $85.6k+1
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 39¢ means
39%chance the market gave
+154American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 39¢
- Implied odds
- 39.4%
- As American odds
- +154 no vig
- Size
- $85.6k
- Placed
- Jul 09, 12:40 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 09, 16:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- Sparkling8899
- Tx
- 0xf7682fea…
This wallet's graded record
7/10+20.3 pts
expected 5.0 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -39 ptsNo price · entry 39¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $38.3k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $20.1k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $16.2k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $17.1k | excluded |