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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.4 wins, so it did -68.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-68.2 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
1.4
Flagged volume
$629.2k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±32.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$109.7k
Last 30 days +$1,750 · $9.89M volume · 2,408 trades · since Jun 14, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$486.4k
Open P&L · 169 positions
−$342.6k
Closed-position win rate
61%
311 closed
Wallet age · markets
132d
471 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 1.4 | -68.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil Medvedev | LOW BUY Daniil Medvedev @ 57¢ | $12.0k | missed |
| Cincinnati Open: Arthur Fery vs Alex de Minaur | LOW SELL Alex de Minaur @ 99.9¢ | $15.3k | excluded |
| Cincinnati Open: Arthur Fery vs Alex de Minaur | LOW BUY Alex de Minaur @ 83¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
 UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW SELL Islam Makhachev @ 99.9¢ | $32.1k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Islam Makhachev @ 74¢ | $14.6k | excluded |
| National Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Gabriel Diallo | MED SELL Luciano Darderi @ 77¢ | $78.6k 4.9× usual |
excluded |
 France vs. England: Team to Win | LOW BUY England @ 74¢ | $14.3k | excluded |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Argentina @ 99.8¢ | $53.7k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 46¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY France @ 56¢ | $36.0k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Argentina @ 99.8¢ | $26.2k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 71¢ | $16.0k | excluded |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 21¢ | $15.3k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW SELL Yes @ 59¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Argentina @ 99.9¢ | $20.2k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 79¢ | $16.0k | excluded |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Belgium @ 99.9¢ | $26.3k | excluded |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Belgium @ 95¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $41.2k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢ | $15.0k | called |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 84¢ | $21.0k | excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $14.1k | excluded |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91.8¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $17.4k | excluded |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99¢ | $20.8k | excluded |
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