← Wallets
−$1,743Yes · avg 35¢ → 3.6¢ · $206
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.1 wins, so it did -2.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-2.5 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.1
Flagged volume
$223.2k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$286.2k
Last 30 days −$909 · $4.64M volume · 1,463 trades · since Feb 27, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$289.7k
Open P&L · 203 positions
−$531.9k
Closed-position win rate
74%
239 closed
Wallet age · markets
240d
413 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 1.1 | -2.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY France @ 39¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | MED BUY France @ 60¢ | $40.9k 2.4× usual |
missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 43¢ | $13.0k | missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $23.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW SELL Yes @ 56¢ | $28.2k | excluded |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW SELL France @ 59¢ | $14.8k | called |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY France @ 60¢ | $30.0k | missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $10.8k | missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢ | $17.4k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $20.1k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $13.9k | called |
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