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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 10. The prices it paid implied about 5.0 wins, so it did +20.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 10 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +16.0 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+20.3 pts
Called / graded
7/10
Expected from price
5.0
Flagged volume
$3.09M
Sample size10 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$763k10 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (France vs. Spain: Team to Advance at 42¢) and the edge is +16.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 39% · n=1
40–60¢
78% vs 51% · n=9
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$225.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $39.51M volume · 31,837 trades · since Oct 15, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$79.0k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
54%
63 closed
Wallet age · markets
374d
63 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 10 | 7 | 5.0 | +20.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-24? | MED BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $148.9k | called |
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Spain @ 59¢ | $150.0k | called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $50.0k | missed |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Spain @ 59¢ | $150.0k | called |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 46¢ | $145.8k | called |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Spain @ 42¢ | $274.1k 2.2× usual |
called |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY No @ 52¢ | $26.7k | excluded |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $17.8k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | MED BUY No @ 39¢ | $85.6k | missed |
| France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Under @ 53¢ | $31.0k | called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY England @ 52¢ | $649.4k 5.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | MED BUY No @ 52¢ | $91.6k | called |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY No @ 62¢ | $41.6k | excluded |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $1.11M 9.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | MED BUY No @ 54¢ | $123.8k | missed |
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