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+$1,643No · avg 72¢ → 86¢ · $9,602+$447No · avg 69¢ → 87¢ · $2,203+$272No · avg 86¢ → 98.5¢ · $2,156+$614No · avg 53¢ → 86¢ · $1,610+$498No · avg 68¢ → 98.5¢ · $1,585 · 1 proven with, 2 against−$569No · avg 69¢ → 46¢ · $1,086−$3,884No · avg 75¢ → 14¢ · $926+$144Yes · avg 52¢ → 84¢ · $370 · 1 proven with, 0 against
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 11 of 18. The prices it paid implied about 8.4 wins, so it did +14.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 18 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +11.1 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+14.3 pts
Called / graded
11/18
Expected from price
8.4
Flagged volume
$3.14M
Sample size18 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$89k18 graded bets in the order they resolved · 11 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 at 31¢) and the edge is +11.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
67% vs 34% · n=6
40–60¢
44% vs 48% · n=9
60–80¢
100% vs 68% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$2.13M
Last 30 days −$18.6k · $69.44M volume · 179,829 trades · since Jun 09, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$12.45M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$7.15M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
137d
15065 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 18 | 11 | 8.4 | +14.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY No @ 41¢ | $358.2k 8.9× usual |
missed |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $166.8k 4.1× usual |
missed |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $22.6k | called |
 Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY No @ 44¢ | $21.2k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY No @ 39¢ | $39.2k | missed |
| Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 | MED BUY Under @ 31¢ | $32.4k | called |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Belgium @ 47¢ | $40.0k | excluded |
| Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 22¢ | $17.6k | excluded |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Belgium @ 46¢ | $19.0k | called |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | MED BUY Belgium @ 46¢ | $92.0k 2.3× usual |
called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Mexico @ 49¢ | $11.2k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: O/U 1.5 | MED BUY Over @ 62¢ | $97.9k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: O/U 1.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 67¢ | $67.0k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 38¢ | $76.0k | called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Mexico @ 49¢ | $49.0k | missed |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $299.4k 7.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | LOW BUY No @ 50¢ | $95.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: France (-2.5) | LOW BUY Sweden @ 66¢ | $16.1k | excluded |
| Spread: France (-2.5) | LOW BUY Sweden @ 70¢ | $31.7k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | MED BUY No @ 47¢ | $205.7k 5.1× usual |
missed |
| Spread: Argentina (-2.5) | MED BUY Argentina @ 44¢ | $149.6k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Over @ 56¢ | $112.0k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 70¢ | $23.8k | excluded |
| Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 48¢ | $19.5k | excluded |
| Spread: England (-1.5) | MED BUY England @ 68¢ | $83.3k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 47¢ | $22.7k | missed |
| Spread: England (-1.5) | MED BUY England @ 68¢ | $163.1k 4.0× usual |
called |
| Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Under @ 69¢ | $89.7k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 58¢ | $39.6k | excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $40.8k | called |
| Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY No @ 35¢ | $22.8k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY No @ 33¢ | $14.8k | excluded |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY No @ 40¢ | $16.0k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY No @ 31¢ | $31.0k | called |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY No @ 33¢ | $66.0k | called |
| Spread: Japan (-2.5) | LOW BUY Japan @ 21¢ | $11.6k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 49¢ | $16.2k | called |
| Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Over @ 42¢ | $93.3k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? | MED BUY No @ 61¢ | $120.5k 3.0× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | LOW BUY No @ 37¢ | $33.3k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | MED BUY No @ 53¢ | $53.0k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | MED BUY No @ 33¢ | $70.0k | missed |
| Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 59¢ | $67.7k | missed |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW BUY Yes @ 49¢ | $26.7k | called |
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