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What this means. A wallet put $205.7k on No, at a price that gave it a 47% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 18 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$205.7k
BUY No @ 47¢ · 437,581 shares in 3 fills
Size ≥ $100k3 fills in 1h5.1× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet CandleHammerDrums took No (buy) for $205.7k at an average 47¢. At that price the market implied a 47% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $205.7k+2
3 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 47¢ means
47%chance the market gave
+113American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 47¢
- Implied odds
- 47.0%
- As American odds
- +113 no vig
- Size
- $205.7k
- Placed
- Jun 28, 13:51 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 28, 15:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- CandleHammerDrums
- Tx
- 0x282ea8d3…
This wallet's graded record
11/18+14.3 pts
expected 8.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -47 ptsNo price · entry 47¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $18.8k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $40.5k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $131.1k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $31.4k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | MED SELL Yes @ 96.1¢ | $71.8k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |