← Wallets
−$100Yes · avg 37¢ → 36¢ · $41.6k+$8,961Yes · avg 10¢ → 14¢ · $35.1k+$476Yes · avg 78¢ → 80¢ · $24.9k−$265No · avg 37¢ → 36¢ · $22.5k+$1,848No · avg 86¢ → 97.3¢ · $15.7k+$1,958No · avg 82¢ → 97.8¢ · $12.1k+$1,135Yes · avg 76¢ → 84¢ · $11.4k−$1,484Yes · avg 27¢ → 24¢ · $10.9k
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 13 of 20. The prices it paid implied about 13.0 wins, so it did +0.0 pts better than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (+0.0 pts over 20 bets). Without its single best bet: -3.3 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+0.0 pts
Called / graded
13/20
Expected from price
13.0
Flagged volume
$4.03M
Sample size20 graded
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±9.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$24k20 graded bets in the order they resolved · 13 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Learner Tien at 37¢) and the edge is -3.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 10% · n=1
20–40¢
100% vs 37% · n=1
40–60¢
33% vs 47% · n=3
60–80¢
73% vs 70% · n=11
80–100¢
75% vs 85% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$2.90M
Last 30 days −$290.2k · $155.40M volume · 822,208 trades · since Jan 28, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$5.12M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$774.2k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
269d
196995 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 15 | 10 | 9.3 | +4.8 pts |
| Politics | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -74.0 pts |
| Economy | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -72.0 pts |
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | +21.7 pts |
| Crypto | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | +30.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Bulls vs. Raptors | LOW BUY Raptors @ 85¢ | $20.9k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 | LOW SELL Over @ 99.9¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
 China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev | LOW SELL Novak Djokovic @ 99.9¢ | $27.7k | excluded |
 Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 74¢ | $11.8k | missed |
 Ravens vs. Cowboys | LOW BUY Ravens @ 42¢ | $14.2k | excluded |
| Ravens vs. Cowboys | LOW SELL Ravens @ 40¢ | $16.8k | excluded |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton | LOW BUY Alexander Zverev @ 91¢ | $14.0k | excluded |
| US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Learner Tien | LOW BUY Karen Khachanov @ 37¢ | $14.1k | called |
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-27? | MED SELL Yes @ 89¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Jack Pinnington Jones | LOW BUY Otto Virtanen @ 90¢ | $12.2k | excluded |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | MED BUY Yes @ 72¢ | $34.7k | missed |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Tommy Paul | LOW SELL Kamil Majchrzak @ 99.9¢ | $17.5k | excluded |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Tommy Paul | LOW BUY Kamil Majchrzak @ 63¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $14.1k | called |
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Spain @ 99.8¢ | $13.4k | excluded |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 30¢ | $14.3k | excluded |
| France vs. England: Team to Win | MED SELL England @ 90.1¢ | $94.7k 3.8× usual |
excluded |
| France vs. England: Team to Win | MED BUY England @ 72¢ | $72.3k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| France vs. England: Team to Win | MED BUY France @ 67¢ | $30.9k | missed |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $94.5k 3.8× usual |
missed |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 46¢ | $25.6k | called |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 97.8¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | MED SELL Yes @ 89¢ | $10.7k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | MED SELL Yes @ 80¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
 Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 5.8¢ | $16.4k | called |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH SELL Yes @ 38¢ | $193.6k 7.8× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98.5¢ | $24.2k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW SELL Yes @ 97.3¢ | $13.2k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $16.5k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98.9¢ | $24.1k | excluded |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 37¢ | $186.5k 7.5× usual |
missed |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 73¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $141.4k 5.7× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | MED SELL Yes @ 77¢ | $10.5k | missed |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $25.8k | excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $15.0k | called |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $18.8k | excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | MED SELL Yes @ 57¢ | $26.2k | missed |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | MED BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $35.6k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ | $10.4k | called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $41.0k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢ | $11.3k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY Yes @ 46¢ | $46.7k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | MED SELL Yes @ 20¢ | $107.7k 4.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | MED SELL No @ 77¢ | $15.2k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $364.4k 14.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | HIGH BUY No @ 60¢ | $130.0k 5.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | MED SELL Yes @ 41¢ | $52.0k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY Yes @ 44¢ | $56.1k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $65.8k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 70¢ | $132.0k 5.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | MED BUY Yes @ 84¢ | $47.3k | called |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? | MED SELL Yes @ 79¢ | $92.1k 3.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? | MED BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $47.0k | called |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? | MED BUY Yes @ 81¢ | $86.3k 3.5× usual |
missed |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $18.7k | called |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | LOW SELL Yes @ 40¢ | $17.4k | missed |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | LOW BUY Yes @ 43¢ | $18.7k | called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | MED BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $47.0k | called |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $94.1k 3.8× usual |
called |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $69.8k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | MED BUY Yes @ 30¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | LOW SELL Yes @ 97.3¢ | $24.4k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | MED BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $94.1k 3.8× usual |
called |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | LOW BUY Yes @ 92¢ | $23.0k | excluded |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | MED BUY Yes @ 49¢ | $28.1k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | MED BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $60.6k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | MED BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $42.1k | called |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 79¢ | $85.0k 3.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $47.1k | called |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $28.1k | missed |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | MED BUY Yes @ 76¢ | $47.2k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $14.2k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | MED BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $47.2k | missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | MED BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $47.0k | excluded |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 18¢ | $10.1k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | MED BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $28.2k | called |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $15.3k | excluded |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | MED BUY No @ 77¢ | $47.2k | excluded |
 Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 9.7¢ | $18.4k | missed |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢ | $15.4k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Spurs @ 89¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
 Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins | LOW BUY Miami Marlins @ 68¢ | $10.5k | excluded |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 81¢ | $19.7k | called |
 UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Khamzat Chimaev @ 82¢ | $17.1k | missed |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | LOW SELL Lakers @ 99.9¢ | $23.5k | excluded |
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | MED SELL Yes @ 98.4¢ | $117.8k 4.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | MED BUY Yes @ 71¢ | $56.1k 2.2× usual |
called |
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? | MED SELL No @ 96.6¢ | $29.6k | missed |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? | LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢ | $29.9k | excluded |
 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | LOW BUY No @ 69¢ | $10.5k | called |
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