What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 3.8 wins, so it did -35.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice.How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-35.2 pts
Called / graded
1/8
Expected from price
3.8
Flagged volume
$2.34M
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.5 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$403k
8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? at 38¢) and the edge is -49.1 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
50% vs 38% · n=2
40–60¢
0% vs 51% · n=6
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$235.7k
Last 30 days −$30.0k · $15.88M volume · 6,372 trades · since May 30, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
