Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$535
Return on staked
-66.9%
Bets
1/8 won
Edge vs price
-35.2 pts ±17.5
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jun 19, 08:35 EDTJul 15, 12:43 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | 54¢ | missed | 100d ago |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | 39¢ | missed | 106d ago |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | 53¢ | missed | 109d ago |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | 50¢ | missed | 110d ago |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | 49¢ | missed | 119d ago |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | 38¢ | called | 120d ago |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | 58¢ | missed | 123d ago |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | 40¢ | missed | 126d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.