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Spread: Japan (-2.5)excluded
What this means. A wallet put $11.6k on Japan, at a price that gave it a 21% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 18 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
Spread: Japan (-2.5)excluded$11.6k
BUY Japan @ 21¢ · 55,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)Sports
What happened
Wallet CandleHammerDrums took Japan (buy) for $11.6k at an average 21¢. At that price the market implied a 21% chance for that side. The market resolved Japan. This trade isn't graded. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $11.6k+0
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 21¢ means
21%chance the market gave
+376American odds
$1.00paid per share if Japan wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 21¢
- Implied odds
- 21.0%
- As American odds
- +376 no vig
- Size
- $11.6k
- Placed
- Jun 20, 23:57 EDT
- Market close
- Jun 21, 00:00 EDT
- Result
- Japan
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- CandleHammerDrums
- Tx
- 0x153c4397…
This wallet's graded record
11/18+14.3 pts
expected 8.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade +79 ptsJapan price · entry 21¢ · resolved Japan
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Japan (-2.5) | LOW SELL Japan @ 99.9¢ | $89.4k | excluded |
| Spread: Japan (-2.5) | LOW BUY Japan @ 55¢ | $21.6k | excluded |
| Spread: Japan (-2.5) | LOW BUY Tunisia @ 49¢ | $18.1k | excluded |
| Spread: Japan (-2.5) | LOW BUY Tunisia @ 47¢ | $15.3k | excluded |
| Spread: Japan (-2.5) | LOW BUY Tunisia @ 80¢ | $17.5k | excluded |
| Spread: Japan (-2.5) | MED BUY Tunisia @ 80¢ | $25.9k | missed |