omnibus-076daa

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 39 of 67. The prices it paid implied about 31.4 wins, so it did +11.3 pts better than the market expected. That's no clear edge yet (+11.3 pts over 67 bets). Without its single best bet: +10.4 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Cagliari Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5+$1,102Under · avg 56¢ → 60¢ · $15.7k Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Liudmila Samsonova vs Heather Watson−$1,477Heather Watson · avg 48¢ → 44¢ · $13.4k UFC 333: Nicolle Caliari vs. Iasmin Lucindo (Women's Strawweight, Early Prelims)+$46Iasmin Lucindo · avg 78¢ → 78¢ · $12.4k RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5+$409Over · avg 55¢ → 56¢ · $11.7k Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-24?−$105Yes · avg 52¢ → 52¢ · $10.8k Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-10-24?−$56Yes · avg 54¢ → 54¢ · $10.4k Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Deportivo A Coruña: O/U 3.5−$286Over · avg 41¢ → 40¢ · $10.0k Valencia CF vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5+$80Over · avg 55¢ → 56¢ · $8,890

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

None of its 4 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.

Price-adjusted edge

+11.3 pts

Called / graded

39/67

Expected from price

31.4

Flagged volume

$5.86M

Sample size67 graded

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±6.0 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$369k

67 graded bets in the order they resolved · 39 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? at 28¢) and the edge is +10.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

0–20¢

0% vs 18% · n=1

20–40¢

36% vs 34% · n=11

40–60¢

62% vs 49% · n=53

60–80¢

100% vs 74% · n=2

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$3.41M

Last 30 days +$493.2k · $153.39M volume · 208,395 trades · since Jun 03, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Market	Flag	Size	Implied	When	Result
Cagliari Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5	LOW BUY Under @ 56¢	$10.7k	56%	1h ago	pending
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5	LOW BUY Over @ 55¢	$10.4k	55%	1h ago	pending
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-24?	LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢	$10.9k	52%	1h ago	pending
Lyon Open: Luca Van Assche vs Lorenzo Musetti	LOW BUY Lorenzo Musetti @ 53¢	$22.0k	53%	9h ago	excluded
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-10-23?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 30¢	$138.8k 6.4× usual	30%	11h ago	excluded
Will Torino FC win on 2026-10-23?	MED BUY No @ 54¢	$26.4k	54%	11h ago	excluded
UFC 333: Nicolle Caliari vs. Iasmin Lucindo (Women's Strawweight, Early Prelims)	LOW BUY Iasmin Lucindo @ 78¢	$11.6k	78%	19h ago	pending
Lyon Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Stan Wawrinka	LOW BUY Flavio Cobolli @ 74¢	$20.2k	74%	1d ago	excluded
European Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Zizou Bergs	LOW BUY Zizou Bergs @ 76¢	$16.5k	76%	1d ago	excluded
Almaty Open: Tomas Machac vs Karen Khachanov	MED BUY Karen Khachanov @ 63¢	$38.0k	63%	1d ago	excluded
Ningbo Open: Alexandra Eala vs Diana Shnaider	MED BUY Alexandra Eala @ 32¢	$17.1k	32%	1d ago	excluded
Ningbo Open: Katarzyna Kawa vs Belinda Bencic	MED BUY Katarzyna Kawa @ 67¢	$28.7k	67%	1d ago	excluded
Lyon Open: Moise Kouame vs Lorenzo Musetti	LOW BUY Lorenzo Musetti @ 65¢	$18.2k	65%	2d ago	excluded
Lyon Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Martin Landaluce	MED BUY Martin Landaluce @ 34¢	$18.0k	34%	2d ago	excluded
Almaty Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Andrey Rublev	LOW BUY Andrey Rublev @ 55¢	$17.7k	55%	2d ago	excluded
Como 1907 vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	LOW BUY Under @ 53¢	$13.1k	53%	2d ago	called
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-21?	MED BUY Yes @ 34¢	$20.4k	34%	2d ago	missed
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21?	MED BUY No @ 53¢	$32.8k	53%	3d ago	called
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-14?	MED BUY Yes @ 45¢	$92.9k 4.3× usual	45%	10d ago	missed
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Carlos Alcaraz	LOW BUY Carlos Alcaraz @ 66¢	$13.4k	66%	11d ago	excluded
Ravens vs. Falcons	LOW BUY Falcons @ 57¢	$11.8k	57%	12d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	LOW BUY Spirit @ 57¢	$11.7k	57%	13d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	MED BUY MOUZ @ 43¢	$63.3k 2.9× usual	43%	13d ago	excluded
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs	MED BUY G2 Esports @ 54¢	$33.2k	54%	13d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	MED BUY Team Falcons @ 42¢	$37.5k	42%	14d ago	excluded
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Fery	LOW BUY Karen Khachanov @ 75¢	$17.8k	75%	14d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	LOW BUY Team Falcons @ 58¢	$17.6k	58%	17d ago	excluded
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	MED BUY Team Falcons @ 58¢	$67.6k 3.1× usual	58%	17d ago	called
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	MED BUY G2 @ 53¢	$41.5k	53%	20d ago	excluded
Valorant: Global Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Champions Group B	MED BUY EDward Gaming @ 30¢	$14.5k	30%	22d ago	missed
Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01?	LOW BUY No @ 52¢	$15.8k	52%	22d ago	missed
Will Sweden win on 2026-09-28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢	$16.2k	48%	25d ago	called
Will Norway win on 2026-09-24?	LOW BUY No @ 43¢	$10.8k	43%	29d ago	missed
Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers	LOW BUY Washington Nationals @ 38¢	$10.7k	38%	30d ago	called
Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers	LOW BUY Washington Nationals @ 39¢	$23.8k	39%	30d ago	called
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs	LOW BUY Movistar KOI @ 46¢	$12.8k	46%	34d ago	excluded
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs	MED BUY Movistar KOI @ 28¢	$14.3k	28%	34d ago	excluded
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs	MED BUY Shopify Rebellion @ 29¢	$13.0k	29%	35d ago	excluded
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5	MED BUY Over @ 55¢	$98.0k 4.5× usual	55%	35d ago	called
Lions vs. Bills	LOW BUY Bills @ 68¢	$18.2k	68%	36d ago	called
Will AC Milan win on 2026-09-16?	MED BUY Yes @ 45¢	$53.0k 2.5× usual	45%	37d ago	missed
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-09-14?	LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢	$24.8k	62%	39d ago	excluded
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants	MED BUY San Diego Padres @ 59¢	$27.4k	59%	42d ago	called
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-09-11?	MED BUY Yes @ 48¢	$46.2k 2.1× usual	48%	42d ago	called
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-09-11?	LOW BUY No @ 53¢	$14.5k	53%	42d ago	missed
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-09-11?	LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢	$24.8k	48%	43d ago	called
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-13?	MED BUY No @ 48¢	$62.1k 2.9× usual	48%	43d ago	missed
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-09-09?	MED BUY Yes @ 78¢	$147.9k 6.9× usual	78%	44d ago	excluded
US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen	LOW BUY Frances Tiafoe @ 50¢	$12.9k	50%	45d ago	excluded
US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen	LOW BUY Frances Tiafoe @ 43¢	$10.7k	43%	45d ago	excluded
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?	LOW BUY No @ 56¢	$16.8k	56%	47d ago	excluded
US Open ATP: Mariano Navone vs Novak Djokovic	LOW BUY Novak Djokovic @ 63¢	$16.0k	63%	54d ago	excluded
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢	$19.0k	51%	54d ago	called
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-30?	LOW BUY No @ 50¢	$11.8k	50%	55d ago	missed
US Open, Qualification ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Jack Pinnington Jones	MED BUY Jack Pinnington Jones @ 62¢	$28.6k	62%	58d ago	excluded
US Open, Qualification ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Daniel Rincon	LOW BUY Daniel Rincon @ 37¢	$10.8k	37%	60d ago	excluded
Will AC Milan win on 2026-08-23?	MED BUY No @ 47¢	$64.1k 3.0× usual	47%	61d ago	missed
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-08-22?	MED BUY Yes @ 47¢	$28.4k	47%	62d ago	excluded
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner	LOW BUY Anyones Legend @ 50¢	$14.9k	50%	69d ago	excluded
Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12?	LOW BUY No @ 50¢	$12.7k	50%	72d ago	excluded
Paris Saint-Germain vs. Aston Villa: O/U 3.5	HIGH BUY Under @ 51¢	$103.3k 4.8× usual	51%	72d ago	excluded
Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12?	LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢	$11.9k	59%	72d ago	excluded
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	LOW BUY Spain @ 63¢	$17.5k	63%	96d ago	excluded
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	MED BUY Spain @ 59¢	$48.9k 2.3× usual	59%	96d ago	excluded
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	MED BUY Spain @ 59¢	$181.6k 8.4× usual	59%	96d ago	called
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	LOW BUY Spain @ 60¢	$22.3k	60%	96d ago	called
Will France win on 2026-07-18?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 54¢	$106.9k 5.0× usual	54%	97d ago	missed
Will France win on 2026-07-18?	MED BUY Yes @ 50¢	$51.2k 2.4× usual	50%	99d ago	missed
England vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5	LOW BUY Under @ 79¢	$20.8k	79%	100d ago	called
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	MED BUY Argentina @ 46¢	$36.6k	46%	100d ago	called
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	LOW BUY Argentina @ 46¢	$13.1k	46%	101d ago	called
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	LOW BUY No @ 60¢	$20.3k	60%	101d ago	called
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance	LOW BUY Spain @ 40¢	$10.9k	40%	101d ago	called
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	LOW BUY Argentina @ 45¢	$14.6k	45%	102d ago	called
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance	MED BUY Spain @ 40¢	$48.4k 2.2× usual	40%	102d ago	called
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	MED BUY Switzerland @ 25¢	$11.0k	25%	104d ago	missed
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	MED BUY Yes @ 95.5¢	$34.1k	96%	105d ago	excluded
Will France win on 2026-07-09?	MED BUY No @ 38¢	$88.6k 4.1× usual	38%	107d ago	missed
Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5	MED BUY Under @ 60¢	$40.1k	60%	108d ago	excluded
Argentina vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	LOW BUY No @ 59¢	$11.6k	59%	108d ago	missed
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	MED BUY Under @ 51¢	$49.1k 2.3× usual	51%	108d ago	called
Mexico vs. England: O/U 1.5	LOW BUY Under @ 48¢	$17.1k	48%	110d ago	excluded
Mexico vs. England: O/U 2.5	MED BUY Under @ 62¢	$29.8k	62%	110d ago	excluded
Canada vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5	LOW BUY Under @ 63¢	$15.7k	63%	111d ago	excluded
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	LOW BUY No @ 51¢	$17.7k	51%	111d ago	excluded
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	LOW BUY No @ 47¢	$13.4k	47%	111d ago	excluded
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	HIGH BUY No @ 47¢	$218.7k 10.1× usual	47%	112d ago	missed
Will United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	MED BUY Yes @ 11¢	$16.5k	11%	114d ago	excluded
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	LOW BUY No @ 47¢	$11.2k	47%	115d ago	missed
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	HIGH BUY No @ 46¢	$164.7k 7.6× usual	46%	115d ago	missed
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	MED BUY No @ 58¢	$28.1k	58%	116d ago	excluded
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	MED BUY No @ 45¢	$93.5k 4.3× usual	45%	116d ago	excluded
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	MED BUY No @ 44¢	$67.2k 3.1× usual	44%	116d ago	missed
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	LOW BUY No @ 43¢	$22.2k	43%	116d ago	missed
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 47¢	$12.8k	47%	117d ago	excluded
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	LOW BUY No @ 52¢	$14.9k	52%	117d ago	excluded
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	HIGH BUY No @ 28¢	$29.9k	28%	117d ago	called
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)	LOW BUY Argentina @ 45¢	$14.4k	45%	118d ago	missed
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	LOW BUY No @ 46¢	$16.2k	46%	118d ago	missed
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	LOW BUY No @ 49¢	$19.2k	49%	118d ago	missed
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	HIGH BUY No @ 51¢	$115.2k 5.3× usual	51%	118d ago	called
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	MED BUY Yes @ 56¢	$136.6k 6.3× usual	56%	118d ago	called
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5	MED BUY Over @ 45¢	$27.3k	45%	118d ago	missed
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5	MED BUY Under @ 55¢	$87.4k 4.1× usual	55%	118d ago	called
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	HIGH BUY No @ 51¢	$175.8k 8.1× usual	51%	119d ago	called
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	MED BUY No @ 48¢	$52.4k 2.4× usual	48%	119d ago	called
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	MED BUY Over @ 60¢	$27.7k	60%	119d ago	excluded
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5	MED BUY Over @ 58¢	$98.9k 4.6× usual	58%	119d ago	excluded
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5	LOW BUY Over @ 49¢	$18.2k	49%	119d ago	missed
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	MED BUY Under @ 69¢	$37.1k	69%	119d ago	called
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	LOW BUY No @ 42¢	$12.5k	42%	119d ago	missed
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	LOW BUY No @ 49¢	$18.9k	49%	120d ago	excluded
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	LOW BUY No @ 46¢	$11.2k	46%	120d ago	called
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	MED BUY No @ 46¢	$26.1k	46%	120d ago	called
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	LOW BUY Yes @ 43¢	$24.5k	43%	120d ago	excluded
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)	LOW BUY Tunisia @ 51¢	$24.5k	51%	120d ago	excluded
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	MED BUY No @ 54¢	$31.8k	54%	120d ago	excluded
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	LOW BUY No @ 47¢	$11.3k	47%	120d ago	called
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)	LOW BUY Tunisia @ 51¢	$24.3k	51%	120d ago	called
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	MED BUY No @ 48¢	$44.6k 2.1× usual	48%	120d ago	called
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	MED BUY No @ 49¢	$48.3k 2.2× usual	49%	120d ago	called
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	LOW BUY No @ 36¢	$19.8k	36%	120d ago	called
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	MED BUY No @ 48¢	$53.4k 2.5× usual	48%	120d ago	called
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	MED BUY No @ 47¢	$84.2k 3.9× usual	47%	121d ago	called
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	MED BUY No @ 48¢	$43.8k 2.0× usual	48%	121d ago	called
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	MED BUY No @ 48¢	$31.2k	48%	121d ago	called
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	HIGH BUY No @ 18¢	$53.6k 2.5× usual	18%	121d ago	missed
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5	LOW BUY Under @ 53¢	$13.1k	53%	122d ago	missed
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	LOW BUY Under @ 51¢	$21.1k	51%	122d ago	excluded
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	LOW BUY No @ 50¢	$10.0k	50%	122d ago	called
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	LOW BUY No @ 35¢	$11.8k	35%	122d ago	missed
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	MED BUY No @ 49¢	$84.1k 3.9× usual	49%	122d ago	called
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	MED BUY Yes @ 63¢	$46.9k 2.2× usual	63%	123d ago	excluded
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	LOW BUY No @ 50¢	$16.7k	50%	123d ago	called
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	MED BUY Portugal @ 58¢	$84.8k 3.9× usual	58%	124d ago	called
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	MED BUY No @ 37¢	$28.3k	37%	124d ago	missed
Spread: Japan (-2.5)	LOW BUY Tunisia @ 49¢	$18.1k	49%	125d ago	excluded
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢	$11.1k	48%	125d ago	missed
Spread: Brazil (-3.5)	LOW BUY Brazil @ 77¢	$10.2k	77%	126d ago	excluded
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	LOW BUY Morocco @ 51¢	$16.1k	51%	126d ago	excluded
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	MED BUY No @ 50¢	$37.5k	50%	127d ago	excluded
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	MED BUY No @ 47¢	$52.7k 2.4× usual	47%	127d ago	called
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	MED BUY No @ 26¢	$13.4k	26%	128d ago	excluded
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5	MED BUY Under @ 33¢	$15.9k	33%	129d ago	excluded
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	MED BUY No @ 33¢	$10.4k	33%	129d ago	missed
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	HIGH BUY No @ 35¢	$45.8k 2.1× usual	35%	130d ago	excluded
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5	LOW BUY Under @ 55¢	$20.2k	55%	130d ago	called
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	LOW BUY Cabo Verde @ 43¢	$17.0k	43%	130d ago	called
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	HIGH BUY No @ 34¢	$45.5k 2.1× usual	34%	131d ago	called
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	MED BUY No @ 49¢	$66.7k 3.1× usual	49%	131d ago	called
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5	MED BUY Under @ 55¢	$59.6k 2.8× usual	55%	131d ago	excluded
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	LOW BUY No @ 97.7¢	$50.7k 2.4× usual	98%	131d ago	excluded
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	MED BUY No @ 53¢	$22.0k	53%	131d ago	called
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	LOW BUY No @ 41¢	$17.1k	41%	133d ago	called
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	LOW BUY Yes @ 51¢	$11.4k	51%	134d ago	called
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	HIGH BUY Yes @ 47¢	$119.9k 5.6× usual	47%	134d ago	missed

omnibus-076daa

Current positions

Open bets: who else is there

Graded P&L at their stakes

Polymarket profile

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