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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 4.3 wins, so it did -53.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-53.6 pts
Called / graded
0/8
Expected from price
4.3
Flagged volume
$6.10M
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$350k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 0 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? at 32¢) and the edge is -56.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 32% · n=1
40–60¢
0% vs 49% · n=4
60–80¢
0% vs 68% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$837.3k
Last 30 days +$5,644 · $74.78M volume · 3,279 trades · since May 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$11.09M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$10.51M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
164d
1518 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 0 | 4.3 | -53.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz | LOW SELL Ben Shelton @ 99.9¢ | $21.2k | excluded |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $53.0k | excluded |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $35.0k | excluded |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby | LOW SELL Jaime Faria @ 99.9¢ | $50.4k | excluded |
| US Open ATP: Jaime Faria vs Jenson Brooksby | LOW BUY Jaime Faria @ 50¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 35¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 69¢ | $75.0k | missed |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-08-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $58.3k | excluded |
 Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-08-28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $57.5k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-08-28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $35.0k | excluded |
 Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants | LOW BUY Arizona Diamondbacks @ 53¢ | $20.0k | missed |
 Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $51.0k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | LOW BUY Yes @ 49¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? | LOW BUY Yes @ 23¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Japan (-2.5) | LOW SELL Japan @ 99.9¢ | $89.4k | excluded |
| Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 38¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $58.2k | excluded |
| Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz | LOW SELL Taylor Fritz @ 99.9¢ | $116.6k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz | MED BUY Taylor Fritz @ 43¢ | $49.0k | excluded |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | MED BUY Yes @ 48¢ | $350.0k 6.2× usual |
excluded |
| Spread: Brazil (-3.5) | MED BUY Brazil @ 33¢ | $66.5k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $398.8k 7.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | MED BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $239.0k 4.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $75.0k | excluded |
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $199.8k 3.6× usual |
excluded |
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $80.0k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 64¢ | $75.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Norway (-2.5) | LOW SELL Norway @ 99.9¢ | $71.4k | excluded |
| Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 | LOW SELL Over @ 99.9¢ | $83.2k | excluded |
| Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 60¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Norway (-2.5) | LOW BUY Norway @ 35¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $99.9k | excluded |
| France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | MED BUY Yes @ 55¢ | $100.0k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $100.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) | MED BUY Spain @ 58¢ | $119.5k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $264.4k 4.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | MED BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $135.0k 2.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | MED SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $350.3k 6.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | MED BUY No @ 53¢ | $185.9k 3.3× usual |
excluded |
 Knicks vs. Spurs | MED BUY Spurs @ 64¢ | $150.0k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | MED BUY No @ 39¢ | $100.0k | excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | MED SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $361.3k 6.4× usual |
excluded |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | MED BUY Yes @ 47¢ | $170.0k 3.0× usual |
called |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | MED BUY Yes @ 32¢ | $47.5k | missed |
 Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes | LOW BUY Hurricanes @ 59¢ | $100.0k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Spurs @ 46¢ | $65.0k | excluded |
 Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | LOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 58¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins | LOW SELL Miami Marlins @ 99.9¢ | $44.6k | excluded |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins | LOW BUY Miami Marlins @ 56¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 54¢ | $55.0k | excluded |
| Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev | MED BUY Flavio Cobolli @ 19¢ | $75.0k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 68¢ | $50.0k | missed |
| Spread: Spurs (-6.5) | LOW BUY Spurs @ 52¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes | LOW BUY Hurricanes @ 61¢ | $50.0k | excluded |
 Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk | LOW SELL Marta Kostyuk @ 99.9¢ | $71.4k | excluded |
| Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk | LOW BUY Marta Kostyuk @ 54¢ | $38.5k | excluded |
| Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya | LOW BUY Anastasia Potapova @ 66¢ | $47.5k | missed |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Spurs @ 44¢ | $35.0k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Spurs @ 41¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Spurs @ 58¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 49¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99¢ | $36.7k | excluded |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 61¢ | $82.5k | excluded |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi | MED SELL Casper Ruud @ 86¢ | $37.5k | excluded |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi | LOW BUY Casper Ruud @ 69¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Canadiens vs. Sabres | LOW SELL Canadiens @ 99.9¢ | $40.8k | excluded |
| Golden Knights vs. Ducks | LOW BUY Ducks @ 53¢ | $65.0k | excluded |
| Canadiens vs. Sabres | LOW BUY Canadiens @ 51¢ | $21.0k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 62¢ | $97.5k | excluded |
| Spread: Pistons (-4.5) | LOW BUY Pistons @ 48¢ | $75.0k | missed |
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