Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$800
Return on staked
-100.0%
Bets
0/8 won
Edge vs price
-53.6 pts ±17.1
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
May 13, 18:45 EDTAug 29, 05:48 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-29? | 69¢ | missed | 56d ago |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants | 53¢ | missed | 58d ago |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | 32¢ | missed | 135d ago |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | 68¢ | missed | 141d ago |
| Spread: Spurs (-6.5) | 52¢ | missed | 141d ago |
| Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya | 66¢ | missed | 145d ago |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | 41¢ | missed | 151d ago |
| Spread: Pistons (-4.5) | 48¢ | missed | 164d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.