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What this means. A wallet put $358.2k on No, at a price that gave it a 41% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 18 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$358.2k
BUY No @ 41¢ · 873,986 shares in 2 fills
Size ≥ $250k2 fills in 1h8.9× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet CandleHammerDrums took No (buy) for $358.2k at an average 41¢. At that price the market implied a 41% chance for that side. The market resolved Yes, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
HIGHSize $358.2k+3
2 fills within 1h+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 41¢ means
41%chance the market gave
+144American odds
$1.00paid per share if No wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 41¢
- Implied odds
- 41.0%
- As American odds
- +144 no vig
- Size
- $358.2k
- Placed
- Jul 19, 14:59 EDT
- Market close
- Jul 19, 20:00 EDT
- Result
- Yes
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- CandleHammerDrums
- Tx
- 0xb44f6394…
This wallet's graded record
11/18+14.3 pts
expected 8.4 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -41 ptsNo price · entry 41¢ · resolved Yes
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $35.7k | excluded |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $43.0k | excluded |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $26.7k | excluded |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $100.3k | excluded |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $64.7k | excluded |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.5k | excluded |