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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +15.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+15.1 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$43.5k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±35.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$19.1k
Last 30 days −$23.6k · $2.60M volume · 664 trades · since Oct 31, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$64.1k
Open P&L · 54 positions
−$72.0k
Closed-position win rate
61%
230 closed
Wallet age · markets
724d
310 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +15.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.5k | excluded |
 Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 85¢ | $23.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xc452bc…