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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.1 wins, so it did -5.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-5.9 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.1
Flagged volume
$345.7k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$12.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $6.85M volume · 5,585 trades · since Mar 05, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$35.9k
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$5,260
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
233d
645 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -5.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED SELL No @ 94.1¢ | $93.4k 2.4× usual |
missed |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 16¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED SELL Yes @ 17¢ | $45.3k | missed |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 17¢ | $37.4k | missed |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 19¢ | $67.9k | called |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 19¢ | $16.0k | called |
 Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $39.0k | excluded |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 94.6¢ | $36.9k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x61a84f…