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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 3.8 wins, so it did -26.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-26.1 pts
Called / graded
2/7
Expected from price
3.8
Flagged volume
$712.4k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$193k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 2 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance at 46¢) and the edge is -39.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
17% vs 54% · n=6
60–80¢
100% vs 61% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$113.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.37M volume · 29 trades · since Jun 19, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$69.8k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$178.0k
Closed-position win rate
50%
10 closed
Wallet age · markets
857d
11 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 7 | 2 | 3.8 | -26.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 40¢ | $50.7k | excluded |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 41¢ | $126.5k 2.4× usual |
missed |
| France vs. England: Team to Win | LOW SELL England @ 99.9¢ | $213.9k 4.1× usual |
excluded |
| France vs. England: Team to Win | MED BUY England @ 33¢ | $70.1k | called |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 46¢ | $53.2k | called |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY France @ 58¢ | $10.5k | missed |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY France @ 59¢ | $21.4k | missed |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY France @ 60¢ | $74.9k | missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $49.5k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $41.6k | called |
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