Weekly report card
Week 2026-29
Jul 13, 00:00 EDT – Jul 19, 23:59 EDT · markets that resolved this week
Price-adjusted edge
-4.3 pts
Called
449/1025
Expected from price
493.2
Std. error
±1.3
In week 2026-29, 1025 graded flags resolved. The flagged side won 449 times; entry prices implied 493.2. Whales did no better than the price (-4.3 pts). One week is a small sample.
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1014 | 440 | 484.1 | -4.4 pts |
| Other | 8 | 8 | 7.6 | +5.6 pts |
| Crypto | 3 | 1 | 1.5 | -16.0 pts |
Best calls (lowest implied odds that won)
called98d ago
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
SELLYes@ 92¢→No
$10.9k · macrosteaksimplied 8%
called114d ago
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
BUYYes@ 10¢→Yes
$22.2k · GoldenAlpha168implied 10%
called114d ago
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
SELLNo@ 90¢→Yes
$16.1k · tmoneeeyimplied 10%
Biggest misses
missed128d ago
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
SELLNo@ 87¢→No
$763.0k · JambonMogettesimplied 13%
missed128d ago
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
SELLNo@ 89¢→No
$712.6k · JambonMogettesimplied 11%
missed100d ago
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
BUYEngland@ 55¢→Argentina
$634.0k · englandsavemeimplied 55%
Every graded flag
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-07-14? | HIGH BUY No @ 62¢ | $1.11M | called |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH SELL No @ 87¢ | $763.0k 3.5× usual |
missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH SELL No @ 89¢ | $712.6k 3.3× usual |
missed |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Spain @ 59¢ | $647.9k 4.6× usual |
called |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY England @ 55¢ | $634.0k | missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 9.5¢ | $617.3k 11.2× usual |
missed |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Spain @ 41¢ | $565.2k | called |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY England @ 54¢ | $436.4k | missed |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY France @ 60¢ | $344.0k 4.9× usual |
missed |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Spain @ 42¢ | $339.7k | called |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Argentina @ 41¢ | $299.0k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 43¢ | $293.0k 5.9× usual |
missed |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $291.0k 3.6× usual |
called |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Spain @ 42¢ | $274.1k 2.2× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $260.0k 5.9× usual |
missed |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Spain @ 59¢ | $259.6k 2.2× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $251.6k 3.9× usual |
missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $240.0k 3.4× usual |
missed |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 41¢ | $236.0k 5.0× usual |
missed |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | MED BUY Spain @ 43¢ | $235.5k | called |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 11¢ | $232.9k 4.2× usual |
missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | MED BUY No @ 60¢ | $232.3k | called |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $222.0k | missed |
| France vs. England: Team to Win | MED BUY France @ 66¢ | $208.5k 6.3× usual |
missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | MED BUY No @ 58¢ | $207.5k 3.5× usual |
called |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 88¢ | $203.7k 10.8× usual |
called |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | MED BUY Spain @ 41¢ | $202.6k | called |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 32¢ | $200.0k 7.0× usual |
missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $195.3k 3.9× usual |
missed |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 41¢ | $192.9k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $184.7k | missed |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | MED BUY Spain @ 41¢ | $183.7k 3.1× usual |
called |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Spain @ 59¢ | $181.6k 8.6× usual |
called |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH SELL No @ 77¢ | $181.0k | called |
| Spread: France (-1.5) | HIGH BUY Spain @ 81¢ | $177.1k 6.7× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | MED BUY No @ 62¢ | $170.8k 3.6× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 51¢ | $170.7k | missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED SELL No @ 89¢ | $168.3k | missed |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 54¢ | $167.8k 2.8× usual |
missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $166.8k 4.1× usual |
missed |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 54¢ | $152.3k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | MED BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $150.3k | missed |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Spain @ 59¢ | $150.0k | called |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 46¢ | $150.0k | called |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Spain @ 59¢ | $150.0k | called |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY France @ 60¢ | $146.7k 2.7× usual |
missed |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | MED BUY Spain @ 42¢ | $146.6k | called |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Spain @ 59¢ | $146.0k | called |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 46¢ | $145.8k | called |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 19¢ | $145.8k | called |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $142.4k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | MED BUY Yes @ 43¢ | $140.2k 4.3× usual |
missed |
| Exact Score: France 3 - 1 England? | MED BUY No @ 93¢ | $139.5k 5.1× usual |
called |
| France vs. England: Team to Win | MED BUY France @ 67¢ | $138.1k | missed |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 46¢ | $131.3k 2.6× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | MED BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $128.2k 2.1× usual |
missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $127.5k | missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 80¢ | $127.0k | called |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 41¢ | $126.5k 2.4× usual |
missed |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 83¢ | $126.4k 3.0× usual |
called |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 41¢ | $121.9k | missed |
| France vs. England: Team to Win | MED BUY France @ 65¢ | $121.7k 2.8× usual |
missed |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | MED BUY Spain @ 41¢ | $121.3k | called |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 12¢ | $120.4k 2.2× usual |
missed |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 54¢ | $120.2k 3.1× usual |
missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | MED BUY No @ 60¢ | $119.0k | called |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | MED BUY France @ 60¢ | $116.3k | missed |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY Argentina @ 46¢ | $115.6k | called |
 Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $113.4k 5.1× usual |
missed |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 14¢ | $113.3k 2.6× usual |
called |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 83¢ | $108.0k 3.5× usual |
missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 89¢ | $107.2k 4.3× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-18? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $106.9k 5.1× usual |
missed |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 84¢ | $106.3k 5.6× usual |
missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | MED BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $105.0k 4.2× usual |
missed |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 13¢ | $105.0k 2.4× usual |
called |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | MED BUY Spain @ 40¢ | $104.1k 2.3× usual |
called |
| France vs. England: Team to Win | HIGH BUY England @ 34¢ | $102.0k | called |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 83¢ | $102.0k 2.4× usual |
called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | MED BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $101.8k | missed |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | MED BUY England @ 54¢ | $100.0k | missed |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $99.6k 4.4× usual |
missed |
| France vs. England: Team to Win | LOW BUY France @ 67¢ | $98.0k 2.3× usual |
missed |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY France @ 58¢ | $97.5k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 43¢ | $96.7k | missed |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 41¢ | $96.7k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | MED BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $96.5k | missed |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | HIGH BUY Yes @ 39¢ | $96.4k | missed |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 77¢ | $96.4k | called |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 41¢ | $94.5k 3.8× usual |
missed |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | MED BUY Spain @ 40¢ | $94.4k 2.1× usual |
called |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 18¢ | $92.6k | missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 44¢ | $92.4k | missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY No @ 81¢ | $92.2k 2.1× usual |
called |
 Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 92¢ | $91.4k 4.7× usual |
missed |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 58¢ | $91.3k 2.7× usual |
called |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 40¢ | $90.7k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | HIGH BUY No @ 58¢ | $90.2k | called |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $90.1k 5.9× usual |
called |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 20¢ | $86.9k 4.4× usual |
missed |
The graded brief, free
unsubscribe anytimeYesterday's biggest flags and how they graded. Misses included.