← Wallets
−$8,124Yes · avg 91.3¢ → 76¢ · $41.9k−$161Yes · avg 74¢ → 72¢ · $9,839
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 11. The prices it paid implied about 6.6 wins, so it did -14.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 11 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-14.2 pts
Called / graded
5/11
Expected from price
6.6
Flagged volume
$2.15M
Sample size11 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$214k11 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? at 54¢) and the edge is -20.2 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 13% · n=2
40–60¢
67% vs 57% · n=3
60–80¢
75% vs 72% · n=4
80–100¢
0% vs 86% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$187.0k
Last 30 days +$28.3k · $5.13M volume · 286 trades · since May 26, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$550.3k
Open P&L · 16 positions
−$723.0k
Closed-position win rate
97%
29 closed
Wallet age · markets
151d
44 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 10 | 4 | 6.0 | -19.8 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +42.0 pts |
History
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